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Polls show Biden leading Trump on election eve, but race tightening in key battlegrounds

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Election Day 2020 is now just hours away. And if the final national and state polls are to be believed, former Vice President Joe Biden is maintaining a modest but distinct lead over President Trump, with national polling advantages as small as 3 points and as large as 12 points — and all of them outside the margins of error.

• Biden +10: A Yahoo News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Biden with a 10-point lead (53 percent to 43 percent) over Trump among likely voters — a margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016. The survey of 1,501 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

• Biden +10: According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday, the former vice president had a 10-point lead (52 percent to 42 percent) over the president. The survey of 1,000 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 28 to Oct. 31, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

• Biden +3: A Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday showed Biden with a 3-point advantage over Trump. The survey of 1,500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27 to Oct. 29, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

• Biden +8: A Fox News poll released over the weekend indicated Biden had an 8-point lead (52 percent to 44 percent) over Trump — slightly smaller than the 10-point advantage the former vice president had in the same Fox News poll last month. The survey of 1,318 registered voters, conducted Oct. 27 to Oct. 29, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

• Biden +12: A CNN poll released last week showed Biden with a 12-point lead (54 percent to 42 percent) over Trump. The survey of 1,005 registered voters, conducted Oct. 23 to Oct. 26, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

• Biden +4: A Hill/Harris X poll released late last week revealed that the Democratic nominee had a 4-point lead (46 percent to 42 percent) over the Republican incumbent. The survey of 2,824 registered voters, conducted Oct. 25 to Oct. 28, has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

• Biden +11: An Economist/YouGov poll released last week showed Biden with an 11-point lead (54 percent to 43 percent) over Trump. The survey of 1,500 registered voters, conducted Oct. 25 to Oct. 27, has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

• Biden +5: An Emerson College poll released last week indicated that the former vice president had a 5-point lead (50 percent to 45 percent) over the president. The survey of 1,121 likely voters, conducted Oct. 25 to Oct. 26, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

• Biden +8: A USA Today/Suffolk University poll released last week showed Biden with an 8-point lead (52 percent to 44 percent) over Trump. The survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted Oct. 23 to Oct. 27, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

• Biden +10: A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week indicated that Biden had a 10-point lead (52 percent to 42 percent) over Trump. The survey of 825 likely voters, conducted Oct. 23 to Oct. 27, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

On average, Biden leads Trump nationally by about 7 percentage points. Four years ago, Clinton led Trump by 3.2 points right before the election. Clinton wound up winning the national popular vote by 2.1 points, 48.2 percent to 46.1 percent — even as a combined 77,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania put Trump over the top in the Electoral College.

Recent polls in those states and other key battlegrounds, including Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas, show a tightening race.

Battleground states

• In Michigan, an Emerson College poll released Sunday showed Biden with a 7-point lead (52 percent to 45 percent) over Trump, outside the survey’s 3.9-point margin of error. RealClearPolitics, which calculates the averages of multiple polls, put Biden’s lead at 5.1 points over Trump in Michigan.

• In Wisconsin, another Emerson College poll released Sunday indicated that the former vice president had an 8-point advantage (53 percent to 45 percent) over the president, again outside the survey’s 3.5 percent margin of error.

• In Pennsylvania, a state seen as a key battleground for both candidates, a Monmouth University poll showed Biden with a 7-point lead (51 percent to 44 percent) over Trump, while Rasmussen Reports put Biden’s edge at 4 points. Similarly, the RealClearPolitics average had Biden’s lead at 4.1 points over Trump in the Keystone State.

• In Florida, a New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday reported that Biden had a 3-point lead (47 percent to 44 percent) over Trump in the Sunshine State, within the survey’s 3.2-point margin of error.

• In Arizona, an Emerson College poll released Sunday showed Biden with a slight 2-point edge (48 percent to 46 percent) over Trump — essentially a toss-up and well within its 3.6-point margin of error.

• In Nevada, a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week disclosed that Biden had a 6-point lead (49 percent to 43 percent) over Trump. But other surveys, including Emerson’s, suggested the race was much tighter.

• In Ohio, an Emerson College poll showed Biden clinging to a 1-point lead (49 percent to 48 percent) over Trump — an edge that is likewise statistically irrelevant, given the survey’s 3.4 percent margin of error.

• In North Carolina, an Emerson College poll indicated that the race is a dead heat, with Biden and Trump each polling at 47 percent.

• In Georgia, where both Trump and Biden held rallies on the final weekend before Election Day, an Emerson College poll found Trump leading Biden by less than a point, 49 percent to 48 percent. But a Monmouth University poll released Sunday showed Biden with a 4-point lead (50 percent to 46 percent) over Trump. The Peach State hasn’t gone blue since 1992, when Bill Clinton won the presidency.

• In Texas, which hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter 1976, an Emerson College poll found another dead heat, with Trump and Biden tied at 49 percent each.

Trump has largely dismissed public polls that show him trailing as “fake.”

“We are winning BIG in all of the polls that matter,” the president proclaimed on Twitter earlier this month.

Andrew Romano contributed reporting to this story.

POLITICS

Erdogan election defeat would be ‘revenge’ – Syrian Kurds

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The YPG claims the Turkish president failing to win another term would be payback for Ankara’s counter-terrorism operations in Syria

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s defeat in this month’s presidential election would serve as “revenge” for Türkiye’s military operations in Syria, a top official of the People’s Defense Units (YPG) has said.

Salih Muslim, one of the leaders of the YPG — a Syrian militant group affiliated with the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and designated by Ankara as a terrorist organization — said in an interview with Medya Haber Kurdish TV channel that his organization has grown frustrated with Türkiye’s counterterrorism operations ongoing in the northern part of Syria since 2016, Daily Sabah reported.

“Now, we have an opportunity in our hands,” Muslim said, stressing that the YPG is eager to see Erdogan unseated. “It’s the first time we have such a thing happening in elections.” He added that “If we can win at the ballot box, we will take all the revenge from [the defeat of] one person.”

Muslim’s statement comes as several members of the YPG and the PKK have openly expressed support for Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, as the two head into a runoff election on May 28. In the previous round, held on May 14, both candidates failed to secure an outright majority with Erdogan gaining just over 49.4% of the vote while Kilicdaroglu received 44.96%.

Kilicdaroglu has vowed to mend Ankara’s relations with NATO and revive Türkiye’s EU membership talks, which have been effectively stalled since 2016. He has also accused Russia of spreading “conspiracies” and “deep fakes” apparently referring to footage circulating online purportedly linking him to the PKK, and told Moscow to get its “hands off the Turkish state.” Russia has rejected the accusations.

Somalis cheer on Türkiye’s Erdogan to win re-election

Erdogan has repeatedly accused his rival of “colluding with terrorists” and threatening to undo Türkiye’s achievements in its war on terror. He has also blasted Kilicdaroglu for trying to “detach” the country from Russia.

Türkiye has been waging low-intensity warfare against Kurdish militias along its Syrian and Iraqi borders for four decades, in a back-and-forth campaign that has claimed the lives of over 40,000 people.

The PKK and its affiliates have been waging an insurgency since 1984 demanding political and cultural autonomy with the final goal of establishing an independent Kurdish State, laying claim to territories in southeast Türkiye and northern parts of Iraq and Syria.

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Chinese special envoy meets with Zelensky

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Li Hui visited Kiev to share Beijing’s views on a political settlement to the Ukraine crisis

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has met with China’s newly appointed special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, who traveled to Kiev to convey Beijing’s views on a diplomatic resolution to Ukraine’s conflict with Russia.

According to a statement published on Thursday by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Li held talks with Zelensky as well as the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, Andrey Yermak, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, and representatives from several other ministries.

Beijing said both sides had agreed that the recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Zelensky had outlined the direction for future relations between their two nations, which it stated should be built on mutual respect and sincerity.

During his trip, Li reiterated that Beijing is willing to serve as a peace broker to help reach a political resolution to the conflict with Russia, based on the principles outlined in a 12-point roadmap published by China in late February.

“There is no panacea in resolving the crisis. All parties need to start from themselves, accumulate mutual trust, and create conditions for ending the war and engaging in peace talks,” Li said, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement.

The special envoy’s two-day trip to Ukraine is the first leg of a wider European tour, during which he is expected to visit Poland, France, Germany, and Russia. Beijing has explained that the trip aims to promote communication toward “a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”

Hungary backs Chinese plan for Ukraine

China’s peace efforts have been welcomed by Russia as well as some European nations such as Hungary, and have been praised for acknowledging the national interests of both parties.

The roadmap, however, has been criticized by some in the West. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg claimed that China lacked “credibility” as it has refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted that “the only thing that can be called a peace plan is Zelensky’s proposal.”

The Ukrainian president has demanded that Russia must withdraw from territories that Kiev claims as its own, as well as pay war reparations and face an international tribunal. The Kremlin has dismissed the initiative, claiming it does not take into consideration “the realities on the ground,” including the new status of four former Ukrainian regions as part of Russia.

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Pakistan’s top court orders release of former PM Imran Khan

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Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered the release of former prime minister Imran Khan, whose arrest earlier this week triggered deadly protests across the country, Geo TV news channel has reported.

The court considered an appeal by Khan’s legal team on Thursday, ruling that the arrest of the opposition figure was illegal, according to the broadcaster.

The leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was detained on an order from the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on Tuesday as soon as he arrived at a lower court in connection with a graft case against him. He has been held at a police compound in the capital, Islamabad, since then.

Khan’s spokesperson told Al Jazeera that the 70-year-old was apprehended in court before he could even appear before the judges, which was “in violation of all laws.” The PTI party claimed that it was not an arrest, but “an abduction,” and called on its supporters to take the streets.

Pakistan deploys army after Imran Khan’s arrest

Pakistan has been gripped by violent protests for the last three days, with demonstrators clashing with security forces and setting government buildings on fire in major cities across the country. The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has deployed the military in an attempt to curb the unrest.

Some 2,500 of Khan’s supporters, including some top figures in his party, have been arrested so far. Local media have reported at least 11 protesters killed and hundreds of police officers wounded.

Numerous criminal cases have been launched against Khan since his removal from office after a no-confidence vote in April 2022. The PTI leader, who remains highly popular in the country, denies all accusations against him.

The politician claimed a year ago that he had been deposed as a result of a US-led “international conspiracy” and accused his opponents of receiving money from foreign forces.

Khan has been making active attempts to return to power since then, staging massive rallies across the country. The former premier survived an assassination attempt last November, escaping with a non-life-threatening leg wound after several bullets were fired at him.

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