Connect with us

POLITICS

Florida maintains toss-up status while Biden leads slightly in Pennsylvania: POLL

Published

on

The pandemic versus the economy defines the presidential contest in two key battlegrounds, with Florida holding firm to its toss-up status while Joe Biden leads slightly in Pennsylvania in the season’s final ABC News/Washington Post polls.

There’s little change in either state. In Florida, Donald Trump has 50% support among likely voters to Biden’s 48%; it was 51%-47% in an ABC/Post poll Sept. 20. Trump won the state by 112,911 votes out of more than 9.4 million cast in 2016.

In Pennsylvania, the race stands at 51%-44%, Biden-Trump, a 7-point advantage for the Democrat; that compares with a 9-point margin late last month. Here, Trump’s 2016 win was even narrower: 44,292 votes out of nearly 6.2 million cast.

Biden owes his standing in Pennsylvania to most of the same groups his campaign relies on across the country. He holds a 14-point advantage among women, compared with an even contest among men; an 18-point lead among independents, a frequent swing voter group that Trump won by 7 percentage points in the state in 2016; and a 28-point lead among moderates.

Biden is competitive among white voters in Pennsylvania — they divide 50%-46%, Trump-Biden — while he wins 76% support from members of racial and ethnic groups in the state. In Florida, by contrast, Trump leads among whites by 20 points. Additionally, boosted by Cuban Americans, he runs competitively among Hispanic voters.

Both states have been spared the worst of the current surge in coronavirus cases, yet these polls, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, show that the pandemic remains a powerful factor. In Pennsylvania, likely voters by 56%-38% say it’s more important to try to control the spread of the virus than to restart the economy; this narrows to 49%-45% in Florida. In both states, Trump wins more than 8 in 10 of those who prioritize the economy, while Biden wins more than 8 in 10 of those focused on stopping the spread.

Approvals and worry

Trump just touches majority approval in Florida for his work in office overall, marking his competitiveness in the state; 51% of likely voters approve of his work in office, 48% disapprove. In Pennsylvania, he’s underwater, 44%-54%. Typically for an incumbent election, these views closely reflect vote preferences.

Democrats hold turnout edge in Florida, with Republicans nipping at their heels

The states report similar recent infection rates: 19 new daily cases per 100,000 residents in Florida and 17 in Pennsylvania. (These compare, for example, to 78 per 100,000 in Wisconsin.) That said, Pennsylvania has a higher seven-day average test-positivity rate, 13.3% versus 5.2% in Florida. And hospitalizations are up 54% in the past two weeks in Pennsylvania, compared with 7% in Florida.

Sixty-two percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania are worried that they or an immediate family member may catch the virus, and 8% say it’s already happened. Fewer in Florida, 55%, are worried (and 10% say it’s happened). In both states, among likely voters who are worried about catching the virus, 70% support Biden.
Trust and qualities

Preferences to handle the economy and the pandemic roughly follow Trump’s approval ratings on them. In Florida, likely voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy, 55%-42%, and divide evenly in trust to handle the pandemic. In Pennsylvania, it’s 48%-45%, Trump-Biden, on the economy, and switches to 51%-40%, Biden-Trump, in trust on the coronavirus.

On another issue in Pennsylvania, likely voters split evenly, 45%-45%, in trust to handle fracking in the state. In their final debate, Trump accused Biden of favoring a ban on fracking. Biden has said he would ban new oil and gas drilling on federal land, but allow continued drilling under existing federal permits and on non-federal land.

Differences between Pennsylvania and Florida also emerge in views of the candidates’ personal qualities. Likely voters in Florida divide evenly between Trump and Biden on who’s more honest and trustworthy (46%-45%) and who better understands the problems of people like them (47%-47%). Trump moves to an advantage as the stronger leader, 53%-44%.

In Pennsylvania, instead, Biden leads on the first two of these – 49%-39% for honesty and 51%-40% for empathy – and runs evenly with Trump on strong leadership, 47%-47%.
Voting

Among the sharpest differences between these states is how people there intend to vote. In Florida, 60% of likely voters said (in interviews last Saturday through Thursday) that they’d already voted, and 23% still intended to vote early, leaving just 17% as Election Day voters. Preferences among early voters are close, 50%-47%, Biden-Trump.

In Pennsylvania, by contrast, most, 58%, said they’d vote on Election Day, 32% said they’d already voted and the rest still intended to do so. Here self-reported early voting was far more lopsided for Biden, 75%-22%.

Regionally speaking

There are large differences across regions of both states. On its face, Biden’s advantage in Pennsylvania rests on Philadelphia, with nearly a 4-1 lead, and its suburbs, 59%-36%. That said, Trump’s position in central Pennsylvania, 52%-42%, is a comedown from his 28-point win there in 2016. The race is essentially tied in the northeast (including Biden’s childhood hometown of Scranton), and 54%-45%, Trump-Biden — not a significant difference given the sample size — in the western counties, including Pittsburgh.

Republicans prepare for post-Election Day legal fights in battleground states

In Florida, Miami, the Gold Coast and the Keys — with about 3 in 10 of the state’s likely voters — is Biden’s best region by far, 60%-38%. Trump comes back with an equally large lead in northern Florida and the Panhandle, 61%-38%, and a broad 68%-30% in the central and Gulf Coast counties. The race is essentially tied in the Tampa area and a close 52%-45%, Biden-Trump, in Orlando and the central Atlantic coast.
Groups

While both candidates draw from their accustomed bases, there are some notable differences. Biden, as noted, leads among independents in Pennsylvania by 54%-36%; in Florida they split evenly, 48%-47%, Biden-Trump. (Similarly, independents in Florida are 12 points more apt than those in Pennsylvania to approve of Trump’s work in office.)

Also as mentioned, Trump wins whites in Florida by 59%-39%, while in Pennsylvania they divide, 50%-46%, Trump-Biden. This includes a big difference among white Catholics; they divide evenly in Pennsylvania, while supporting Trump by 62%-37% in Florida. Further, in Florida, Trump is supported by 71% of non-college white men, about the same as four years ago. In Pennsylvania, instead, his support in this core group falls to 56%, down 15 points from 2016.

Across the political spectrum, college-educated white women in Florida back Biden by 59%-41%, an 18-point margin; Trump won them by 23 points in 2016. Biden has a 40-point lead in this group in Pennsylvania, 67%-27%. Hillary Clinton won them by 14 points.

Hispanics divide closely in Florida: 51% for Biden, 47% for Trump. While the sample is small, this is influenced by substantial support for Trump among Cuban Americans. Biden is ahead among non-Cuban Hispanics and has broad support from Black likely voters.

Among other groups, Biden wins 70% of urban likely voters in Pennsylvania versus 56% in Florida. And seniors divide 54%-45%, Trump-Biden in Florida — not a significant difference given the sample size — while going the other way, 57%-42%, Biden-Trump, in Pennsylvania. Compared with those in Pennsylvania, Florida seniors are 17 points more apt to prioritize restarting the economy over controlling the coronavirus, 13 points more likely to approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and 9 points less worried about catching the virus.
Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone interviews Oct. 24 to 29, 2020, among random samples of 915 Florida registered voters, including 824 likely voters; and 908 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 810 likely voters. Results have margins of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points among registered voters and 4.0 among likely voters in both states, including design effects. The vote preference question included the Libertarian candidate in Pennsylvania and the Green and Libertarian candidates in Florida. Neither was included in the September surveys in these states.

Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 31%-35%-29% among registered voters and 31%-36%-28% among likely voters in Florida and 33%-36%-26% among registered voters and 36%-36%-24% among likely voters in Pennsylvania.

POLITICS

Erdogan election defeat would be ‘revenge’ – Syrian Kurds

Published

on

The YPG claims the Turkish president failing to win another term would be payback for Ankara’s counter-terrorism operations in Syria

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s defeat in this month’s presidential election would serve as “revenge” for Türkiye’s military operations in Syria, a top official of the People’s Defense Units (YPG) has said.

Salih Muslim, one of the leaders of the YPG — a Syrian militant group affiliated with the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and designated by Ankara as a terrorist organization — said in an interview with Medya Haber Kurdish TV channel that his organization has grown frustrated with Türkiye’s counterterrorism operations ongoing in the northern part of Syria since 2016, Daily Sabah reported.

“Now, we have an opportunity in our hands,” Muslim said, stressing that the YPG is eager to see Erdogan unseated. “It’s the first time we have such a thing happening in elections.” He added that “If we can win at the ballot box, we will take all the revenge from [the defeat of] one person.”

Muslim’s statement comes as several members of the YPG and the PKK have openly expressed support for Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, as the two head into a runoff election on May 28. In the previous round, held on May 14, both candidates failed to secure an outright majority with Erdogan gaining just over 49.4% of the vote while Kilicdaroglu received 44.96%.

Kilicdaroglu has vowed to mend Ankara’s relations with NATO and revive Türkiye’s EU membership talks, which have been effectively stalled since 2016. He has also accused Russia of spreading “conspiracies” and “deep fakes” apparently referring to footage circulating online purportedly linking him to the PKK, and told Moscow to get its “hands off the Turkish state.” Russia has rejected the accusations.

Somalis cheer on Türkiye’s Erdogan to win re-election

Erdogan has repeatedly accused his rival of “colluding with terrorists” and threatening to undo Türkiye’s achievements in its war on terror. He has also blasted Kilicdaroglu for trying to “detach” the country from Russia.

Türkiye has been waging low-intensity warfare against Kurdish militias along its Syrian and Iraqi borders for four decades, in a back-and-forth campaign that has claimed the lives of over 40,000 people.

The PKK and its affiliates have been waging an insurgency since 1984 demanding political and cultural autonomy with the final goal of establishing an independent Kurdish State, laying claim to territories in southeast Türkiye and northern parts of Iraq and Syria.

You can share this story on social media:

PLEASANT MUSIC FOR YOUR CAFE, BAR, RESTAURANT, SWEET SHOP, HOME

SUITABLE MUSIC FOR YOGA LOVERS

Continue Reading

POLITICS

Chinese special envoy meets with Zelensky

Published

on

Li Hui visited Kiev to share Beijing’s views on a political settlement to the Ukraine crisis

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has met with China’s newly appointed special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, who traveled to Kiev to convey Beijing’s views on a diplomatic resolution to Ukraine’s conflict with Russia.

According to a statement published on Thursday by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Li held talks with Zelensky as well as the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, Andrey Yermak, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, and representatives from several other ministries.

Beijing said both sides had agreed that the recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Zelensky had outlined the direction for future relations between their two nations, which it stated should be built on mutual respect and sincerity.

During his trip, Li reiterated that Beijing is willing to serve as a peace broker to help reach a political resolution to the conflict with Russia, based on the principles outlined in a 12-point roadmap published by China in late February.

“There is no panacea in resolving the crisis. All parties need to start from themselves, accumulate mutual trust, and create conditions for ending the war and engaging in peace talks,” Li said, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement.

The special envoy’s two-day trip to Ukraine is the first leg of a wider European tour, during which he is expected to visit Poland, France, Germany, and Russia. Beijing has explained that the trip aims to promote communication toward “a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”

Hungary backs Chinese plan for Ukraine

China’s peace efforts have been welcomed by Russia as well as some European nations such as Hungary, and have been praised for acknowledging the national interests of both parties.

The roadmap, however, has been criticized by some in the West. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg claimed that China lacked “credibility” as it has refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted that “the only thing that can be called a peace plan is Zelensky’s proposal.”

The Ukrainian president has demanded that Russia must withdraw from territories that Kiev claims as its own, as well as pay war reparations and face an international tribunal. The Kremlin has dismissed the initiative, claiming it does not take into consideration “the realities on the ground,” including the new status of four former Ukrainian regions as part of Russia.

You can share this story on social media:

PLEASANT MUSIC FOR YOUR CAFE, BAR, RESTAURANT, SWEET SHOP, HOME

SUITABLE MUSIC FOR YOGA LOVERS

Continue Reading

POLITICS

Pakistan’s top court orders release of former PM Imran Khan

Published

on

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered the release of former prime minister Imran Khan, whose arrest earlier this week triggered deadly protests across the country, Geo TV news channel has reported.

The court considered an appeal by Khan’s legal team on Thursday, ruling that the arrest of the opposition figure was illegal, according to the broadcaster.

The leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was detained on an order from the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on Tuesday as soon as he arrived at a lower court in connection with a graft case against him. He has been held at a police compound in the capital, Islamabad, since then.

Khan’s spokesperson told Al Jazeera that the 70-year-old was apprehended in court before he could even appear before the judges, which was “in violation of all laws.” The PTI party claimed that it was not an arrest, but “an abduction,” and called on its supporters to take the streets.

Pakistan deploys army after Imran Khan’s arrest

Pakistan has been gripped by violent protests for the last three days, with demonstrators clashing with security forces and setting government buildings on fire in major cities across the country. The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has deployed the military in an attempt to curb the unrest.

Some 2,500 of Khan’s supporters, including some top figures in his party, have been arrested so far. Local media have reported at least 11 protesters killed and hundreds of police officers wounded.

Numerous criminal cases have been launched against Khan since his removal from office after a no-confidence vote in April 2022. The PTI leader, who remains highly popular in the country, denies all accusations against him.

The politician claimed a year ago that he had been deposed as a result of a US-led “international conspiracy” and accused his opponents of receiving money from foreign forces.

Khan has been making active attempts to return to power since then, staging massive rallies across the country. The former premier survived an assassination attempt last November, escaping with a non-life-threatening leg wound after several bullets were fired at him.

You can share this story on social media:

PLEASANT MUSIC FOR YOUR CAFE, BAR, RESTAURANT, SWEET SHOP, HOME

SUITABLE MUSIC FOR YOGA LOVERS

Continue Reading

Trending