POLITICS

‘Shy’ Trump Voters: Pollsters Warn of Flawed Election Day Predictions

Published

4 years ago

October 31, 2020

Notable pollsters are cautioning Americans to refrain from getting too comfortable with polling predictions as Election Day approaches, suggesting polls may not account for “shy” or “hidden” Trump voters– those who are largely responsible for President Trump’s upset victory four years ago. In this election, the magnitude of such voters could be even greater.

Politico spoke to two pollsters who “weren’t blindsided” by the Trump phenomenon in 2016: Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly.

Cahaly is the chief pollster with the Trafalgar Group, which RealClearPolitics’ co-founder and president, Tom Bevan, called “one of the most accurate polling operations in America” because of its predictions in the last two political cycles. In 2016, Cahaly showed Trump winning both Pennsylvania and Michigan. His polls also showed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leading his Democrat challenger, Andrew Gillum, in 2018’s gubernatorial race.

“Kapteyn, a Dutch economist who leads the USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, oversaw the USC/Los Angeles Times poll that gave Trump a 3-point lead heading into election day—which, Kapteyn notes, was wrong: Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points,” Politico reported, adding that both men suspect that surveys could be, once again, “undercounting” the support for President Trump. They attribute this phenomenon to “shy” Trump voters, or people “reluctant to share their opinions for fear of being judged.” These voters are more commonly known among GOP circles as the “silent majority.”

Kapteyn and his team at USC have attempted to identify this mysterious demographic by asking respondents whom they believe their friends and neighbors will vote for, in addition to whom they are supporting personally.

While Biden leads by double-digits nationally for the routine question of who the respondent supports, his lead shrinks to five or six points in what Kapteyn described as the “‘social-circle’ question.”

“One explanation for that may indeed be ‘social desirability.’ In general—and certainly on the phone—people may still be a little hesitant to say to [sic] that they’re Trump voters,” he explained.

While Cahaly said he is “not even debating” if Joe Biden will secure the popular vote, he believes Trump is “likely” to enjoy another victory in the Electoral College due to the “hidden Trump votes out there.”

“We live in a country where people will lie to their accountant, they’ll lie to their doctor, they’ll lie to their priest,” Cahaly explained. “And we’re supposed to believe they shed all of that when they get on the telephone with a stranger?”

He told Politico he focuses on battleground state polls rather than national surveys and stated that “people are going to be shocked.”

“A lot of people are going to vote this year who have been dormant or low-propensity voters. I think it’s going to be at an all-time high,” he predicted.

“The models of who’s going to turn out this year are very flawed. What type of person comes out for Trump? They’re not a normal election participant. They’re a low-propensity voter. We included them in all of our surveys in fall 2016, and we are including them now,” he continued.

Many of the Trafalgar Group surveys released in the last week show Trump and Biden statistically tied in key battleground states. While a Trafalgar Group survey released this week showed Biden up by less than half of a percentage point in Wisconsin, an ABC/Washington Post survey also released this week showed Biden up by 17 percent.

Cahaly believes the magnitude of the “shy” Trump voter could be even greater this year due to the heightened tensions across the board, particularly against Trump supporters.

“In 2016, the worst being said about Trump voters is that they were ‘deplorable.’ 2020 is a whole different ballgame,” Cahaly said. “It is worse this time—significantly worse.”

“This year had more things where you can get punished for expressing an opinion outside the mainstream than almost any year I can think of in modern history,” he continued, adding that he is finding that people are “very hesitant [to share their preference for Trump], because now it’s not just being called ‘deplorable.’”

“It’s people getting beat up for wearing the wrong hat, people getting harassed for having a sticker on their car. People just do not want to say anything,” he explained:

We talk to lots of people in our surveys. And I hear things like, “Yeah, I’m for Trump, my neighbors are for Trump, but there’s one neighbor who just hates Trump. And when he walks his dog, he kind of wrinkles his nose by those houses, and I don’t want him to do it at my house, so I don’t put a Trump sign. I like the guy, and I don’t want him mad at me.” I hear stuff like that all the time. People are playing their cards close to their chest because there’s a stigma to being for Trump. What happens when the stigma rolls away from people who hide their vote, and they start admitting where they are? This is what I think is going to happen on Election Day.

When asked what he would say to voters who believe the election is locked up for Biden, Cahaly emphasized his belief in “hidden” Trump voters.

“I don’t think it’s done. Some of these national polls are not even taking into consideration the fact that Republicans have closed the gap with voter registrations,” he said, adding that they are not “taking into account the number of low-propensity voters who are voting and who will vote on Election Day.”

“I don’t think they’re measuring people’s genuine opinions. And I think [pollsters] are just not going to see it coming,” he said.

“I will be really surprised, given our own numbers, if there isn’t a very sizable gap between Biden and Trump in the popular vote—in favor of Biden,” Kapteyn said. “But in the states? I don’t know.”

All eyes are on key swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and even Minnesota as Election Day swiftly approaches. Over the weeks, Breitbart News has spoken to dozens of Trump supporters across those states, Florida and Wisconsin, particularly, who also expressed the belief that the silent majority will show up in a greater volume than in 2016.

“We have everything, and I said, well, after hearing that they were going to pack the court, I finally said I’m putting my Trump flag up,” Bryce, a Wisconsin resident, recently told Breitbart News.

“Wouldn’t you know? Dozens in my neighborhood went up. The lesbian couple across the street — they’re very nice people; we love them — I didn’t think they’d ever put one up. They’ve got a Trump flag. There’s a lot of support that is sleeper support,” he continued.

“It’s like you gotta just ‘shh’ — just be cool,” he said. “Show up to the polls and vote, you know.”

“It’s like it’s a secret but when you meet somebody else in the secret society that supports Trump — because you can’t do it publicly or people will rip you. You know,” Bryce added when asked if there is a bigger and stronger silent majority from 2016:

Matt Perdie

President Trump is expected to hold three rallies in Pennsylvania on Saturday, one of the states he unexpectedly won four years ago, followed by stops in Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida on Sunday.

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POLITICS

Erdogan election defeat would be ‘revenge’ – Syrian Kurds

Published

1 year ago

May 23, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

The YPG claims the Turkish president failing to win another term would be payback for Ankara’s counter-terrorism operations in Syria

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s defeat in this month’s presidential election would serve as “revenge” for Türkiye’s military operations in Syria, a top official of the People’s Defense Units (YPG) has said.

Salih Muslim, one of the leaders of the YPG — a Syrian militant group affiliated with the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and designated by Ankara as a terrorist organization — said in an interview with Medya Haber Kurdish TV channel that his organization has grown frustrated with Türkiye’s counterterrorism operations ongoing in the northern part of Syria since 2016, Daily Sabah reported.

“Now, we have an opportunity in our hands,” Muslim said, stressing that the YPG is eager to see Erdogan unseated. “It’s the first time we have such a thing happening in elections.” He added that “If we can win at the ballot box, we will take all the revenge from [the defeat of] one person.”

Muslim’s statement comes as several members of the YPG and the PKK have openly expressed support for Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, as the two head into a runoff election on May 28. In the previous round, held on May 14, both candidates failed to secure an outright majority with Erdogan gaining just over 49.4% of the vote while Kilicdaroglu received 44.96%.

Kilicdaroglu has vowed to mend Ankara’s relations with NATO and revive Türkiye’s EU membership talks, which have been effectively stalled since 2016. He has also accused Russia of spreading “conspiracies” and “deep fakes” apparently referring to footage circulating online purportedly linking him to the PKK, and told Moscow to get its “hands off the Turkish state.” Russia has rejected the accusations.

Somalis cheer on Türkiye’s Erdogan to win re-election

Erdogan has repeatedly accused his rival of “colluding with terrorists” and threatening to undo Türkiye’s achievements in its war on terror. He has also blasted Kilicdaroglu for trying to “detach” the country from Russia.

Türkiye has been waging low-intensity warfare against Kurdish militias along its Syrian and Iraqi borders for four decades, in a back-and-forth campaign that has claimed the lives of over 40,000 people.

The PKK and its affiliates have been waging an insurgency since 1984 demanding political and cultural autonomy with the final goal of establishing an independent Kurdish State, laying claim to territories in southeast Türkiye and northern parts of Iraq and Syria.

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POLITICS

Chinese special envoy meets with Zelensky

Published

1 year ago

May 19, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

Li Hui visited Kiev to share Beijing’s views on a political settlement to the Ukraine crisis

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has met with China’s newly appointed special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, who traveled to Kiev to convey Beijing’s views on a diplomatic resolution to Ukraine’s conflict with Russia.

According to a statement published on Thursday by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Li held talks with Zelensky as well as the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, Andrey Yermak, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, and representatives from several other ministries.

Beijing said both sides had agreed that the recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Zelensky had outlined the direction for future relations between their two nations, which it stated should be built on mutual respect and sincerity.

During his trip, Li reiterated that Beijing is willing to serve as a peace broker to help reach a political resolution to the conflict with Russia, based on the principles outlined in a 12-point roadmap published by China in late February.

“There is no panacea in resolving the crisis. All parties need to start from themselves, accumulate mutual trust, and create conditions for ending the war and engaging in peace talks,” Li said, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement.

The special envoy’s two-day trip to Ukraine is the first leg of a wider European tour, during which he is expected to visit Poland, France, Germany, and Russia. Beijing has explained that the trip aims to promote communication toward “a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”

Hungary backs Chinese plan for Ukraine

China’s peace efforts have been welcomed by Russia as well as some European nations such as Hungary, and have been praised for acknowledging the national interests of both parties.

The roadmap, however, has been criticized by some in the West. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg claimed that China lacked “credibility” as it has refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted that “the only thing that can be called a peace plan is Zelensky’s proposal.”

The Ukrainian president has demanded that Russia must withdraw from territories that Kiev claims as its own, as well as pay war reparations and face an international tribunal. The Kremlin has dismissed the initiative, claiming it does not take into consideration “the realities on the ground,” including the new status of four former Ukrainian regions as part of Russia.

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POLITICS

Pakistan’s top court orders release of former PM Imran Khan

Published

1 year ago

May 12, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered the release of former prime minister Imran Khan, whose arrest earlier this week triggered deadly protests across the country, Geo TV news channel has reported.

The court considered an appeal by Khan’s legal team on Thursday, ruling that the arrest of the opposition figure was illegal, according to the broadcaster.

The leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was detained on an order from the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on Tuesday as soon as he arrived at a lower court in connection with a graft case against him. He has been held at a police compound in the capital, Islamabad, since then.

Khan’s spokesperson told Al Jazeera that the 70-year-old was apprehended in court before he could even appear before the judges, which was “in violation of all laws.” The PTI party claimed that it was not an arrest, but “an abduction,” and called on its supporters to take the streets.

Pakistan deploys army after Imran Khan’s arrest

Pakistan has been gripped by violent protests for the last three days, with demonstrators clashing with security forces and setting government buildings on fire in major cities across the country. The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has deployed the military in an attempt to curb the unrest.

Some 2,500 of Khan’s supporters, including some top figures in his party, have been arrested so far. Local media have reported at least 11 protesters killed and hundreds of police officers wounded.

Numerous criminal cases have been launched against Khan since his removal from office after a no-confidence vote in April 2022. The PTI leader, who remains highly popular in the country, denies all accusations against him.

The politician claimed a year ago that he had been deposed as a result of a US-led “international conspiracy” and accused his opponents of receiving money from foreign forces.

Khan has been making active attempts to return to power since then, staging massive rallies across the country. The former premier survived an assassination attempt last November, escaping with a non-life-threatening leg wound after several bullets were fired at him.

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