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Chinese ‘human rights’ is set to top the news again, let’s talk about the Xinjiang Victims Database

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A list of co-conspirators in the alleged anti-Uyghur atrocities has been created – except there’s no fact-checking involved

The UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights kicked off its 73rd Session on February 13 and runs through March 3. NGOs are rushing to submit their reports and focus on the alleged issues of some countries. Leading the charge, Amnesty International has already submitted its report on China.

The lengthy report levels numerous accusations against Beijing, which you can read for yourself. The beginning, however, points to a few topics that have already made their way through the media, including discrimination against ethnic and religious minorities, with references to political indoctrination and forced cultural assimilation of Muslims in Xinjiang. It also includes similar examples of religious repression in Tibet.

Tibet has long been a touchy subject, with Westerners proclaiming “Free Tibet” or rattling off some examples of repression in the region. This is far from the case. The Chinese government preserves the Tibetan language and culture and acts as an official mediator for the Buddhist faith when determining a living Buddha. This is an important function that actually keeps the faith alive and prosperous.

With regard to Xinjiang, it’s important to note that representatives from Muslim countries have visited the Autonomous Region and sang China’s praises for its anti-terrorist activities there. Every Muslim country backs Beijing in relevant votes on the matter before the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

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It’s also important to note that China protects the Uyghur native language and teaches it in schools alongside Mandarin, with the latter taught to help increase economic opportunity in the country for those who don’t already speak it. It is a far cry from cultural genocide, as some have called it, considering Uyghurs are not being exiled from their native Xinjiang.

The charges, which have even dipped into that muddy territory of genocide, are so flimsy that even US State Department lawyers didn’t think they would stick. Geopolitics is one of the better reasons why the Xinjiang issue has been so fiercely presented. The US wants to kneecap China’s solar panel and polysilicon industry, which is based primarily in the region. That’s why the US banned these goods outright, much like how it attacked Huawei products recently using “national security concerns” as the pretext. Washington is waging a “high-tech war” with Beijing.

Perhaps the oddest thing to come from this propaganda blast is that someone has even created a dubious Xinjiang Victims Database, which includes a list of people who are allegedly connected to human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Apparently, at some point the list included famous Chinese actors Andy Lau and Chow Yan-fat, or at least their pictures. However, they cannot be seen on the page any longer – presumably after the database was called out by Chinese social media users.

The list is run by Gene A. Bunin, a Russian-American who credits himself as a “writer and translator who has been researching the Uyghur language in Xinjiang since 2008” and doesn’t want to be described as an “activist”. He has bylines in Foreign Policy and his interviews and comments have been featured in other US-sponsored media. Bunin was based in Almaty, Kazakhstan before being denied entry into the country in 2021. His reporting, like nearly all Western Xinjiang investigators, doesn’t come from the ground in China. The Xinjiang Victims Database claims to be almost entirely funded by donations.

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A few of the people in the database are not even Chinese and have no relevant connection to Xinjiang. The only reason they are on this list appears to be because they speak positively about China and happen to live there.

The website’s FAQ section notes that it doesn’t fact-check all of its submissions, since “this is too cost-prohibitive (given our resources) and often impossible (given the information vacuum in Xinjiang). For the most part, shahit.biz operates passively and imports data from a mix of public sources – such as video testimonies and media reports – and official documents, reporting as accurately as possible the information conveyed in the original source. It is outside our scope and ability to go out and corroborate each and every testimony.”

I spoke to some of the folks on the list, including Jerry Grey, a British-Australian expat who has lived and worked in China for 18 years, and Daniel Dumbrill, a Canadian who owns a brewpub in Shenzhen and has lived in China since 2008.

“I have no idea what the purpose of this list is other than to identify people that the list compiler disagrees with. What his/her/their purpose is, is a mystery. It could be just an academic exercise or it could be for more nefarious purposes to create some kind of hit list,” Grey told me. “One thing is clear, it serves no legal purpose as no law has been broken on my part and I’m sure, but can’t speak for others, that no law appears to have been broken. So, I’m at a loss as to how to describe its real purpose.”

Grey added that he doesn’t know who is behind the list but suggested that it must be someone who believes there are human rights abuses going on in Xinjiang. Since he’s traveled there, he suspects he is thought to have participated in the suppression of native Uyghur culture.

“I do not agree with my inclusion in a list where I don’t understand the importance or relevance of the list. I do not approve of being on any list when I have no idea of the purpose or the motivation of the person creating it” Grey lamented. “If someone, for academic purposes, creates a list of people who have spoken the truth about what they’ve seen and experienced then I would have no problem – this does not appear to be a benign list or have any positive attributes to it. When activists, some of whom have been involved with and/or supported terrorist or extreme actions create and publish lists such as this, it is a very worrying development,” he continued.

Grey hopes the police or other authorities will be made aware of the list, find out the motivation behind it and remove it from social media. He believes it could be an issue of personal safety or freedom of speech.

Anti-Asian hate crimes in the US are the direct result of Washington’s foreign policy

Canadian Daniel Dumbrill fell into the site’s bad books after an innocuous online gesture. “I was included in one of their lists after they lashed out at me on Twitter for calling out a categorical lie. A Twitter user posted a Douyin (Chinese TikTok) video and repurposed it with a lie. A claim was made that the video, showing an empty mosque, was taken in August 2020 during the Qurban festival, intending to prove that religious holidays are no longer celebrated in Xinjiang. By following the watermark on the video, it was easy to verify that it was in fact from July, during the early stages of Сovid-19 and initial lockdowns. The Xinjiang Victims Database Twitter account was offended by this fact-checking exercise and labeled it “psychological abuse”. This is one of the many clear examples that prove this is not an honest or truth-seeking organization.”

“The list I was put on states that I am “linked directly or indirectly to the detention, surveillance, denial/discrimination, and exploitation of documented victims”. I disagree with putting anyone on a factually inaccurate list like this simply for questioning the narratives they support. History has taught us valuable lessons about the consequences resulting from taking stories about an “enemy”, told by folks presenting themselves as the good guys, at face value,” he concluded.

One thing I realized in talking with these people is that this list reminds me of the official list published by the Ukrainian government of individuals who promote “narratives consonant with Russian propaganda,” which I found myself on. Such lists demonize people with their connection to a topic that is highly propagandized, and that most people have no idea about it. That’s basically where we are with China-related issues, and it says a lot about Amnesty’s supposed impartiality as a human rights organization that they used data from this ridiculous list in their report.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of TSFT.

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China is raising its retirement age, now among the youngest in the world’s major economies

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Starting next year, China will raise its retirement age for workers, which is now among the youngest in the world’s major economies, in an effort to address its shrinking population and aging work force.

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the country’s legislature, passed the new policy Friday after a sudden announcement earlier in the week that it was reviewing the measure, state broadcaster CCTV announced.

The policy change will be carried out over 15 years, with the retirement age for men raised to 63 years, and for women to 55 or 58 years depending on their jobs. The current retirement age is 60 for men and 50 for women in blue-collar jobs and 55 for women doing white-collar work.

“We have more people coming into the retirement age, and so the pension fund is (facing) high pressure. That’s why I think it’s now time to act seriously,” said Xiujian Peng, a senior research fellow at Victoria University in Australia who studies China’s population and its ties to the economy.

The previous retirement ages were set in the 1950’s, when life expectancy was only around 40 years, Peng said.

The policy will be implemented starting in January, according to the announcement from China’s legislature. The change will take effect progressively based on people’s birthdates.

For example, a man born in January 1971 could retire at the age of 61 years and 7 months in August 2032, according to a chart released along with the policy. A man born in May 1971 could retire at the age of 61 years and 8 months in January 2033.

Demographic pressures made the move long overdue, experts say. By the end of 2023, China counted nearly 300 million people over the age of 60. By 2035, that figure is projected to be 400 million, larger than the population of the U.S. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had previously projected that the public pension fund will run out of money by that year.

Pressure on social benefits such as pensions and social security is hardly a China-specific problem. The U.S. also faces the issue as analysis shows that currently, the Social Security fund won’t be able to pay out full benefits to people by 2033.

“This is happening everywhere,” said Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. “But in China with its large elderly population, the challenge is much larger.”

That is on top of fewer births, as younger people opt out of having children, citing high costs. In 2022, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that for the first time the country had 850,000 fewer people at the end of the year than the previous year , a turning point from population growth to decline. In 2023, the population shrank further, by 2 million people.

What that means is that the burden of funding elderly people’s pensions will be divided among a smaller group of younger workers, as pension payments are largely funded by deductions from people who are currently working.

Researchers measure that pressure by looking at a number called the dependency ratio, which counts the number of people over the age of 65 compared to the number of workers under 65. That number was 21.8% in 2022, according to government statistics, meaning that roughly five workers would support one retiree. The percentage is expected to rise, meaning fewer workers will be shouldering the burden of one retiree.

The necessary course correction will cause short-term pain, experts say, coming at a time of already high youth unemployment and a soft economy.

A 52-year-old Beijing resident, who gave his family name as Lu and will now retire at age 61 instead of 60, was positive about the change. “I view this as a good thing, because our society’s getting older, and in developed countries, the retirement age is higher,” he said.

Li Bin, 35, who works in the event planning industry, said she was a bit sad.

“It’s three years less of play time. I had originally planned to travel around after retirement,” she said. But she said it was better than expected because the retirement age was only raised three years for women in white-collar jobs.

Some of the comments on social media when the policy review was announced earlier in the week reflected anxiety.

But of the 13,000 comments on the Xinhua news post announcing the news, only a few dozen were visible, suggesting that many others had been censored.

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Russia warns NATO of ‘direct war’ over Ukraine

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Moscow’s envoy to the UN has reiterated where the Kremlin’s red line is

Granting Kiev permission to use Western-supplied long-range weapons would constitute direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict by NATO, Russia’s envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, has said.

Moscow will treat any such attack as coming from the US and its allies directly, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday, explaining that long-range weapons rely on Western intelligence and targeting solutions, neither of which Ukraine is capable of.

NATO countries would “start an open war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons, Nebenzia told the UN Security Council on Friday.

“If such a decision is made, that means NATO countries are starting an open war against Russia,” Moscow’s envoy said. “In that case, we will obviously be forced to make certain decisions, with all the attendant consequences for Western aggressors.”

Putin issues new warning to NATO

“Our Western colleagues will not be able to dodge responsibility and blame Kiev for everything,” Nebenzia added. “Only NATO troops can program the flight solutions for those missile systems. Ukraine doesn’t have that capability. This is not about allowing Kiev to strike Russia with long-range weapons, but about the West making the targeting decisions.”

Russia considers it irrelevant that Ukrainian nationalists would technically be the ones pulling the trigger, Nebenzia explained. “NATO would become directly involved in military action against a nuclear power. I don’t think I have to explain what consequences that would have,” he said.

The US and its allies placed some restrictions on the use of their weapons, so they could claim not to be directly involved in the conflict with Russia, while arming Ukraine to the tune of $200 billion.

Multiple Western outlets have reported that the limitations might be lifted this week, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Kiev. Russia has repeatedly warned the West against such a course of action.

 

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China makes its move in Africa. Should the West be worried?

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Beijing maintains a conservative economic agenda in its relations with the continent, while finding it increasingly difficult to avoid a political confrontation with the West

The ninth forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the FOCAC summit held in Beijing on September 4-6 marked a significant phase in Africa’s relations with its global partners in the post-Covid era. China is the last major partner to hold a summit with African nations following the end of the pandemic; Africa summits were held by the EU and the US in 2022, and by Russia in 2023. The pandemic, coupled with rising global tensions, macroeconomic shifts, and a series of crises, underlined Africa’s growing role in the global economy and politics – something that China, which has undergone major changes (both internal and external) as a result of the pandemic, is well aware of.

It is clear that the relationship between China and Africa is entering a new phase. China is no longer just a preferential economic partner for Africa, as it had been in the first two decades of the 21st century. It has become a key political and military ally for many African countries. This is evident from China’s increasing role in training African civil servants and sharing expertise with them, as well as from several initiatives announced at the summit, including military-technical cooperation: officer training programs, mine clearing efforts, and over $100 million which China will provide to support the armed forces of African nations.

In the political arena, however, Beijing is proceeding very cautiously and the above-mentioned initiatives should be seen as the first tentative attempts rather than a systematic strategy.

While China strives to avoid political confrontation with the West in Africa and even closely cooperates with it on certain issues, it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so. Washington is determined to pursue a policy of confrontation with Beijing in Africa – this is evident both from US rhetoric and its strategic documents.

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A “divorce” between China and the West is almost inevitable. This means that Chinese companies may lose contracts with Western corporations and won’t have access to transportation and logistics infrastructure. Consequently, China will need to develop its own comprehensive approach to Africa, either independently or in collaboration with other global power centers.

An important sign of the growing confrontation between the US and China in Africa was the signing of a trilateral memorandum of understanding between China, Tanzania, and Zambia regarding the reconstruction of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA), which was originally built by China in the 1970s. If it is expanded, electrified, and modernized, TAZARA has the potential to become a viable alternative to one of the key US investment projects in the region: the Lobito Corridor, which aims to enhance logistics infrastructure for exporting minerals (copper and cobalt) from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia by modernizing the railway from the DR Congo to the Angolan port of Lobito.

In inland regions such as Eastern Congo, transportation infrastructure plays a crucial role in the process of mineral extraction. Considering the region’s shortage of rail and road networks, even a single non-electrified railway line leading to a port in the Atlantic or Indian Ocean can significantly boost the operation of the mining sector and permanently tie the extraction and processing regions to specific markets.

It appears that China’s initiative holds greater promise compared to the US one, particularly because Chinese companies control major mines both in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia. This gives them a clear advantage in working with Chinese operators and equipment, facilitating the export of minerals through East African ports. Overall, this indicates that East Africa will maintain its role as the economic leader on the continent and one of the most integrated and rapidly developing regions for imports.

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The highlight of the summit was China’s pledge to provide $50 billion to African countries over the next three years (by 2027). This figure echoes the $55 billion commitment to China made by the US (for 3 years) at the 2022 US-Africa Summit and the $170 billion that the EU promised to provide over seven years back in 2021. Consequently, leading global players allocate approximately $15-20 billion annually to Africa.

In recent years, there has been noticeable growth in such promises. Nearly every nation is eager to promise Africa something – for example, Italy has pledged $1 billion annually. However, these large packages of so-called “financial aid” often have little in common with actual assistance, since they are typically commercial loans or corporate investments. Moreover, a significant portion of these funds is spent in the donor countries (e.g. on the procurement and production of goods), which means that they contribute to the economic growth of African nations in a minimal way.

As for China, it will provide about $11 billion in genuine aid. This is a substantial amount which will be used for developing healthcare and agriculture in Africa. Another $30 billion will come in the form of loans (roughly $10 billion per year) and a further $10 billion as investments.

The overall financial framework allows us to make certain conclusions, though it’s important to note that the methodology for calculating these figures is unclear, and the line between loans, humanitarian aid, and investments remains blurred. In terms of investments (averaging around $3 billion per year), Beijing plans to maintain its previous levels of activity – in recent years, China’s foreign direct investments (FDI) have ranged from $2 billion to $5 billion annually. Financial and humanitarian aid could nearly double (from the current $1.5 billion-$2 billion per year) while lending is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels (which would still be below the peak years of 2012-2018).

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China’s economic plan for Africa seems to be quite conservative. It’s no surprise that debt issues took center stage during the summit. During the Covid-19 pandemic, macroeconomic stability in African countries deteriorated, which led to challenges in debt repayments and forced Africa to initiate debt restructuring processes assisted by the IMF and the G20. Starting in 2020, a combination of internal and external factors led China to significantly cut its lending to African countries – from about $10-15 billion down to $2-3 billion. This reduction in funding has triggered economic reforms in several African countries (e.g. Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria), which have shifted toward stricter tax and monetary policies. While promises to increase lending may seem like good news for African nations, it’s likely that much of this funding will go toward interest payments on existing obligations and debt restructuring, since China wants to ensure that its loans are repaid.

Despite China’s cautious approach to Africa, its interaction with the continent will develop as a result of external and internal changes affecting both Africa and China. Africa will gradually become more industrialized and will reduce imports while the demand for investments and local production will increase. China will face demographic challenges, and its workforce will decrease. This may encourage bilateral cooperation as some production facilities may move from China to Africa. This will most likely concern East African countries such as Ethiopia and Tanzania, considering China’s current investments in their energy and transportation infrastructure. Additionally, with Africa’s population on the rise and China’s population declining, Beijing is expected to attract more African migrant workers to help address labor shortages.

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