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Full decoupling from China could wipe out hundreds of billions from economy – US Chamber of Commerce

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American firms and the economy as a whole could lose hundreds of billions of dollars if investment in China is halved or the two countries expand tariffs, the US Chamber of Commerce says in its latest study.

If American investors slash foreign direct investment (FDI) stock in China by half, their annual capital gains could drop as much as $25 billion, the business lobbying group said in research released on Wednesday. At the same time, the reduced investment will benefit US competitors, while America’s GDP would see a one-time loss of $500 billion, according to a report assessing the potential cost of the decoupling of the world’s two largest economies.

“Pulling two huge economies apart will be expensive,” the Chamber of Commerce said, adding that the two nations are still deeply intertwined. However, the study noted that “full, comprehensive decoupling is no longer unthinkable.”

China may exercise ‘nuclear option’ against US defense industry with rare-earths export ban – reports

The US-China trade deal has not eliminated all the tariffs that were imposed in the midst of the trade war between the two nations. If relations further deteriorate, and 25-percent tariffs are applied to all two-way trade, it could lead to $190 billion in annual losses for the US economy by 2025, the chamber said.

 


US-China investments are almost DOUBLE what the official figures show, report reveals

The study also estimated that a full decoupling would have an impact on the flow of people, hurting revenue from tourism and education. According to its estimates, if Chinese tourism and education spending drop by half from pre-coronavirus pandemic levels, the US could lose from $15 billion to $30 billion per year in services trade exports.

The report also focused on the potential consequences of decoupling in four industries important to US national interests. The findings show that losing access to the Chinese market by the aviation industry would lead to annual output losses of $38 billion to $51 billion, or $875 billion cumulatively by 2038.

Additionally, losing a share in China’s semiconductor market would result in $54 billion to $124 billion in lost output and put 100,000 US jobs at risk. For the chemicals industry, the imposition of tariffs alone could lead to up to $38 billion in output losses and nearly 100,000 lost jobs. Lost market share in medical devices would result in $23.6 billion in annual revenue, while lost revenue over a decade could exceed $479 billion, the group said.

“Even based on our rough assessment, we can see that the costs of anything approaching ‘full’ decoupling are uncomfortably high,” the Chamber of Commerce concluded. While the group added that alternative ways to deal with China “would complement any decoupling scenario,” it said that if Washington still wants to confront China over its practices, it should unite with “like-minded partners” to minimize the costs to the economy.

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Gold price soars to all-time high

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  • The precious metal has rallied ahead of an expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve
  • The price of gold reached an all-time high on Friday, soaring above $2,600 per ounce as global investors continue to seek safe-haven assets.

Spot gold prices rose 1.13% to a record high of $2,609.8 per ounce before pairing some gains. Prices were up roughly 4% for the week and 23% so far this year, exceeding the 13% advance registered for all of 2023.

Gold has rallied after reports last week that the US Federal Reserve might be ready to lower rates by 50 basis points next week from the current 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest level since 2001. Lower borrowing costs increase the appeal of non-yielding gold.

Analysts attribute the rally to investor demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Investors traditionally turn to gold in times of market uncertainty to hedge risks and as a store of value. For thousands of years, bullion has been seen as a safe haven during periods of economic instability, stock market crises, military conflicts, and pandemics.

The price of gold has also been buoyed by the dollar’s weakness. The greenback has fallen to the lowest level this year against a basket of peer currencies ahead of the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Bank of America predicted earlier this month that gold prices could go up to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12-18 months.

Other precious metals were also on the rise on Friday, with platinum gaining 2.36% to above $1000 per ounce. Silver went up 3.3% to above $31.

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Saudi bank chief resigns after Credit Suisse comment

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Shares of the Swiss bank tumbled after Ammar Al Khudairy warned of a funding cut-off

The chairman of Saudi Arabia’s largest lender, the Saudi National Bank (SNB), Ammar Al Khudairy, has resigned his position, the bank announced on Monday. The resignation, officially “due to personal reasons,” came mere days after his comments triggered a share price collapse of Switzerland’s second-largest bank, Credit Suisse.

When asked in an interview with Bloomberg TV whether the SNB would be open to providing additional capital to Credit Suisse, Al Khudairy responded, “The answer is absolutely not, for many reasons outside the simplest reason which is regulatory and statutory.”

Earlier this month, the SNB rejected a plea from Credit Suisse to provide more funding because, according to the lender, owning more than a 10% stake in the Swiss bank would have caused a “regulatory issue” with the Saudi government.

The banker’s comments sent shares of Credit Suisse plummeting to their lowest level on record. They also caused more turmoil in a global banking sector still reeling from the recent failures of three US lenders. Credit Suisse narrowly avoided insolvency itself, saved by a government-brokered rescue acquisition by rival UBS.

While Al Khudairy’s statement was not the only source of Credit Suisse’s troubles – the bank has been plagued by deposit outflows since last year surrounding a series of scandals and regulatory issues – it exacerbated the crisis of confidence in the bank, analysts say.

SNB, which is 37% owned by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, has suffered significant losses on its investment in Credit Suisse, which has plunged by about $1 billion in a matter of months. The Saudi bank has itself lost more than $26 billion in market value since the start of the turmoil.

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Wall Street up in premarket after Dow slips into bear market

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NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. futures jumped Tuesday morning one day after a selloff on Wall Street put the Dow Jones Industrial Average into what’s known as a bear market.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2% and futures for the S&P 500 were up 1.4%. The S&P 500 slid into bear market territory in June.

The end of the third quarter is approaching and with the next round of earnings reports, investors will get a better sense of how companies are dealing with persistent inflation.

Several economic reports are on tap for this week that will give more details on consumer spending, the jobs market and the broader health of the U.S. economy.

The latest consumer confidence report, for September, from the business group The Conference Board will be released on Tuesday. The government will release its weekly report on unemployment benefits on Thursday, along with an updated report on second-quarter gross domestic product.

On Friday, the government will release another report on personal income and spending that will help provide more details on where and how inflation is hurting consumer spending.

Seeking to make borrowing more expensive and crimp spending, the Fed raised its benchmark rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, again last week. It now sits at a range of 3% to 3.25%. It was near zero at the start of the year. The Fed also released a forecast suggesting its benchmark rate could be 4.4% by the year’s end, a full point higher than envisioned in June.

The U.S. economy is already slowing, raising worries that rate hikes might cause a recession. The Dow was the last of the major U.S. stock indexes to fall into what’s known as a bear market on Monday, falling 1.1% to 29,260.81.

The Dow is now 20.5% below its all-time high set on Jan. 4. A drop of 20% or more from a recent peak is what Wall Street calls a bear market.

The S&P 500 fell 1% to 3,655.04. The Nasdaq dropped 0.6% to 10,802.92, while the Russell 2000 dropped 1.4% to close at 1,655.88.

At midday in Europe, Germany’s DAX climbed 0.5% and the CAC 40 in Paris rose 0.6%. In London, the FTSE 100 was unchanged.

In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index picked up 0.5% to 26,571.87 and the S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 6,496.20. In Seoul, the Kospi rebounded from earlier losses, edging 0.1% higher to 2,223.86.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added just 5 points, to 17,860.31. The Shanghai Composite index jumped 1.4% to 3,093.86 after China’s central bank on Tuesday moved to maintain cash flow for banks by buying securities from commercial lenders, with an agreement to sell them back in the future.

The official Xinhua News Agency said the People’s Bank of China carried out 175 billion yuan (about $24.7 billion) in reverse repos “to maintain liquidity in the banking system.”

Global stocks have been sagging under concerns over stubbornly hot inflation and the risk that central banks could trigger recessions as they try to cool high prices for everything from food to clothing.

Investors have been particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve and its aggressive interest rate hikes. But volatility in currency markets has further roiled markets.

The British pound dropped to an all-time low against the dollar on Monday and investors continued to dump British government bonds in displeasure over a sweeping tax cut plan announced in London last week. It had stabilized by early Tuesday.

The Japanese yen edged toward 145 to the dollar early Tuesday. Last week, the Bank of Japan intervened in the market as the yen slipped past 145, gaining a brief reprieve. But the dollar’s surge against other currencies is putting pressure on the BOJ and other central banks, especially in developing economies facing growing costs for repaying foreign loans.

On Tuesday, the pound was at $1.0810, up from $1.0686 late Monday. The dollar bought 144.35 yen, down from 144.65 yen, and the euro rose to 96.35 cents from 96.10 cents.

In other trading on Tuesday, U.S. benchmark crude added 90 cents to $77.61 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It sank $2.03 to $76.71 on Monday.

Brent crude, used for pricing international oils, rose 97 cents to $83.83 per barrel.

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