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Ukraine has taken in at least $100 million in crypto donations this year, but what have officials in Kiev done with the money?

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Kiev has used crypto-wallets involved in fraud to process donations from around the world

To support the conflict with Russia, thousands of pieces of state-of-the-art military equipment, unprecedented media support, and billions of dollars – to maintain financial stability – have poured into Ukraine from the West.

The multimillion-dollar cryptocurrency donations which Ukraine has been collecting “for the needs of its army” since February, seem to have disappeared from public view. So how has Kiev disposed of more than $100 million in crypto collected from around the world?
Every little BTC helps

Two days after the start of Russia’s military operation, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mikhail Fedorov announced cryptocurrency fundraising to support the country. Kiev accepted almost all major denominations: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, a number of lesser-known types, and even NFTs.

Leaked documents expose Ukrainian attempts to destabilize Russia and draw NATO into a full-scale war with Moscow

At the time, the decision to accept crypto, to “help Ukrainian fighters”, appeared innocuous. The Russian offensive was rapid and it seemed as though Western aid, although large-scale, would not arrive in time.

Cryptocurrencies are an ideal tool in this respect: With a few clicks you can transfer millions of dollars to almost any country in the world, theoretically bypassing banking supervision or the attention of law enforcement. Ukrainian officials clearly expected to attract money not only from the governments of the United States and the European Union but also from concerned citizens familiar crypto. And they succeeded.

Just a week after fundraising began, on March 3, Deputy Minister Alexander Bornyakov announced that Kiev had raised $53 million. A week later, this figure doubled – the country had received a round sum of $100 million from all over the world. It seemed that a local crypto-paradise had formed in Ukraine and, once this money was put into circulation, the country would be able to successfully resist Russia. However, the reality turned out to be much more complex.

First, the flow of cryptocurrencies drastically weakened. In early June, the same Fedorov reported that “for more than three months, the total amount of donations in crypto assets exceeded $100 million.” After June, he no longer published messages about the value of new contributions.

The money that Kiev managed to collect for confrontation with Russia should have been spent as efficiently as possible. And here the “fun” begins.

Unnecessary crypto

Western propaganda carefully, and falsely, shapes the image of Ukraine as a democratic and open country, whose authorities are accountable to their citizens. In reality, however, Ukrainian officials do not provide any detailed and reliable reports on spending. And the case of the millions collected globally in cryptocurrency is no exception.
Vladislav Ugolny: Ukraine is targeting civilians for retribution in the east while its Western backers turn a blind eye

In total, since collection began in February, the Ministry of Digital Transformation has reported twice on spending – on April 14 and July 7, on a total amount of almost $100 million. Information about the July report appeared only on August 17, when it was posted on Twitter and published by Fedorov.

The publication delay of over a month is in itself suspicious, but the oddities do not end there.

According to the specialized crypto media CoinDesk, Ukraine had received $135 million in cryptocurrencies by June. Given the large-scale support from the West, the actual volume of receipts in cryptocurrencies by September presumably should have grown even more.

Having collected impressive sums, Ukrainian officials, for reasons only known to themselves, are in no hurry to spend the money on the needs of their army. After seven months of active hostilities, Ukraine reported spending only about 75% of the crypto funds collected, and this is taking into account only those amounts that are reliably known. What happened to the remaining funds, and why Ukrainian officials seem to be indifferent to tens of millions of dollars, cannot be unambiguously explained.

From Brezhnev to Khrushchev: Ukraine had a huge influence on the Soviet Union, something Kiev now prefers to downplay

Army Needs

Questions also arise over what exactly Ukraine, as officials claimed, spent the collected crypto on. For example, according to a July report, 213 drones were purchased for $11.8 million. Settling on an average cost of goods is the conventional approach, but it turns out that one drone bought for crypto cost nearly $55,800. An extremely impressive amount, despite there being simply no such equipment in the public domain.

For example, the DJI Mavic 3 drone, which has become popular in the conflict, costs between $2,000 and $5,000 depending on modifications. It can be used for reconnaissance and for dropping grenades on the enemy and it is the most common civilian drone. UAVs, on the other hand, with an average cost of $55,000, are more likely to be military grade with secure communication channels. And such UAVs obviously cannot be bought for crypto – they are officially purchased as part of defense contracts.

Another feature of Ukrainian purchases for cryptocurrencies is extremely vague reporting on purchases. With public fundraising, it’s an established norm that the ‘collector’ publish how much money was spent on which model of what particular equipment, with photographic confirmation. However, in the case of the Kiev government, such reports are de facto absent.

For example, on May 4, it was announced that 31 thermal imaging sights had been handed over to Ukrainian border guards. In total, as reported, they received more than 5,000 optical and thermal imaging sights, bought from crypto. At the same time, published confirmation of the transfer of these items amounted to a single photo of one unspecified unit, taken in an unknown location.

Western media continues to ignore how Ukraine is using NATO weapons to kill innocent civilians in the Donbass

Of course, this in itself is not proof that Ukraine has permitted the misappropriation of the collected crypto and falsified information about purchases. However, no confirmation has been published that the equipment was transferred to troops.

All Ukrainian reports on the spending of the collected crypto look literally like a web-page, on which the distribution of funds is randomly indicated. It is impossible to verify and, in fact, officials are asking us to simply take their word for it.

It is also interesting that the Kiev authorities claim that tens of millions of dollars were spent on the army’s needs, but the government Twitter account which supplies spending reports, offers no information about purchases worth such an amount. All expenses publicly reported there do not exceed a few hundred thousand dollars.
Tangled footprints

An analysis of transactions further suggests that Ukrainian officials arbitrarily disposed of the donations collected from around the world.

A feature of cryptocurrency is that it’s quite easy to create a wallet to store digital currency and there’s no need to worry about banking or tax controls. Bitcoin and others are considered to be completely anonymous. In fact, a bitcoin address itself is just a set of Latin letters and numbers that have no connection to a specific person. However, it is still possible to track bitcoin operations.

It’s all based on blockchain technology, where all transactions are recorded. This means that anyone can find out when and how much cryptocurrency was transferred from wallet X to wallet Y. Anyone can track such transactions thanks to publicly available and free services such as Blockchain.com or Etherscan.

Thanks to this, it was possible to establish that more than half of the bitcoin withdrawn from the Ukrainian government wallet were transferred to 3CcF942kYVRotGrfYQxD4QNn4aKVywpRxb. This wallet was created in 2018 and since then its turnover of funds has amounted to more than $6 billion. Interestingly, according to the Check Bitcoin Address profile service, this bitcoin wallet has been repeatedly used to receive money from fraud and blackmail.

Furthermore, it may have been used by cybercriminals to launder money and cover their tracks. In the crypto sphere, this is called bitcoin mixing – when “dirty” bitcoins that are involved in crime are mixed with “clean” cryptocurrency.

Hundreds of operations are carried out and, as a result, it becomes impossible to trace where the ill-gotten money went. An example of this kind of bitcoin mixer is Tornado Cash, against which the US Treasury has imposed sanctions. One of its founders has been arrested in the Netherlands.

Ukrainian officials could have used the mixer simply to ensure greater anonymity of military equipment dealers. However, the openly criminal background and the lack of full-fledged reporting cast doubt on the proper use of the service

Exposed: The vast pro-Ukrainian ‘bot army’ designed to influence Western policy makers

Another suspicious bitcoin wallet is bc1qu4qcqp5xthrreedgk4s28kkqddpv4my53zx3uw. Created immediately after the start of active hostilities, it received $8.3 million from the Ukrainian government wallet. It has been used mainly to receive funds from the government crypto wallet and the criminal wallet mentioned above. According to Blockchain.com, the money was moved between them in small chunks, possibly to make it harder to track transactions.

The crypto wallets created immediately after the start of Russia’s military operation are generally typical for Ukraine. An example, this time using the second most popular cryptocurrency in the world, ETH, would be 0x88ef7bf4e94d9c6a4615e5a9f32ea2d2f141f2e9. In total, 5260 ETH was withdrawn out of almost 10,000 ETH collected by Ukraine. And, interestingly, most of it was withdrawn three days after the publication of the April spending report. Prior to this, no funds had been withdrawn from the wallet for two months.

According to Ukrainian officials, transactions using crypto are quite normal for many equipment dealers. For long term operators, it is natural to use their usual wallet, no matter its history. But here we see that more than half of the amount in the two most popular cryptocurrencies was withdrawn either to newly created one-day wallets, or those with a criminal mix.

In addition, as mentioned earlier the Ukrainian authorities do not provide detailed reports on spending and it is impossible to verify exactly how the crypto transferred to one-day wallets was used. All this creates the impression that people in Kiev, contrary to all their talk about accountability and transparency, arbitrarily disposed of tens of millions of funds collected in this manner.

FINANCE

German central bank issues warning on economy

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Germany’s GDP could stagnate or even decline in the third quarter, Bundesbank has warned

The German economy has been shrinking over the past two years and will remain stagnant for the rest of the year as it continues to grapple with economic malaise, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

According to a survey conducted by the outlet, the EU’s top economy has been stalling in the three months through September, marking a deeper-than-expected decline.

Economists have already started downgrading their forecasts for this year, with some now seeing protracted stagnation or even another downturn.

“While we expect the market to see a mild recovery at the end of 2024 and in 2025, much of it will be cyclical, with downside risks remaining acute,” Martin Belchev, an analyst at FrontierView told Bloomberg.

He warned that the faltering automotive sector will further exacerbate downward pressures on growth as the top four German carmakers have seen double-digit declines.
Thousands of EU automotive jobs at risk – Bloomberg

The country’s central bank said on Thursday in its monthly report that the German economy may already be in recession. According to the Bundesbank, gross domestic product (GDP) “could stagnate or decline slightly again” in the third quarter, after a 0.1% contraction in the second quarter.

Economic sentiment in the country has suffered due to weak industrial activity, Budensbank President Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday.

“Stagnation might be more or less on the cards for full-year 2024 as well if the latest forecasts by economic research institutes are anything to go by,” he said.

German industry is struggling amid weak demand in key export markets, shortages of qualified workers, tighter monetary policy, the protracted fallout from the energy crisis, and growing competition from China, Bloomberg noted.

The Eurozone’s largest economy has been falling behind its peers over the past years, largely due to a prolonged manufacturing downturn. Germany was the only Group of Seven economy to contract in 2023.

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Thousands of EU automotive jobs at risk

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A third of the region’s major car plants are currently operating at half capacity or less, according to a report

European auto makers are facing more plant closures as they struggle to keep up with the electric vehicle (EV) transition amid slowing demand and growing competition, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

According to the outlet’s analysis of data from Just Auto, nearly a third of the major passenger-car plants from the five largest manufacturers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, Renault and VW – were underutilized last year. The auto giants were producing fewer than half the vehicles they have the capacity to make, the figures showed.

Annual sales in Europe are reportedly around 3 million cars below pre-pandemic levels, leaving factories unfilled and putting thousands of jobs at risk.

The report pointed out that sites shutting down would add to concerns that the region is facing a protracted downturn after falling behind key competitors, the US and China.

“More carmakers are fighting for pieces of a smaller pie,” Matthias Schmidt, an independent auto analyst based near Hamburg, told Bloomberg. “Some production plants definitely will have to go,” he warned.

VW announced last week it was considering closing factories in Germany for the first time in its near nine-decade history. The automaker said it was struggling with the transition away from fossil fuels.

BMW has warned that tepid demand in China poses a further threat to sales and profits.

Volkswagen planning major cutbacks in Germany

The threat of factory closures in Europe has worsened in recent years amid skyrocketing energy prices and worker shortages that have driven up labor costs.

“Failure to turn things around would deal a blow to the region’s economy,” Bloomberg wrote, pointing out that the auto industry accounts for over 7% of the EU’s GDP and more than 13 million jobs.

Car-assembly plants often are “anchors of a community,” securing work at countless nearby businesses, from suppliers of engine parts and trucking companies to the local bakery delivering to the staff cafeteria, the report said.

Closing plants is usually “the last resort” in a region where unions and politicians have a strong hold over corporate decision-making, concluded Bloomberg.

There’s “massive consolidation pressure” for auto plants in Europe, Fabian Brandt, an industry expert for consultancy Oliver Wyman, said. “Inefficient factories will be evaluated, and there will be other kinds of plants that shut down,” he claimed.

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Global debt balloons to record highs

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It’s now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue growing rapidly, a top trade body has warned

The global debt pile increased by $8.3 trillion in the first quarter of the year to a near-record high of $305 trillion amid an aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) has revealed.

According to its Global Debt Monitor report on Wednesday, the reading is the highest since the first quarter of last year and the second-highest quarterly reading ever.

The IIF warned that the combination of such high debt levels and rising interest rates had pushed up the cost of servicing that debt, prompting concerns about leverage in the financial system.

“With financial conditions at their most restrictive levels since the 2008-09 financial crisis, a credit crunch would prompt higher default rates and result in more ‘zombie firms’ – already approaching an estimated 14% of US-listed firms,” the IIF said.

Despite concerns over a potential credit crunch following recent turmoil in the banking sectors of the United States and Switzerland, government borrowing needs to remain elevated, the finance industry body stressed.

According to the report, aging populations and rising healthcare costs continue putting strain on government balance sheets, while “heightened geopolitical tensions are also expected to drive further increases in national defense spending over the medium term,” which would potentially affect the credit profile of both governments and corporate borrowers.

“If this trend continues, it will have significant implications for international debt markets, particularly if interest rates remain higher for longer,” the IIF cautioned.

The report showed that total debt in emerging markets hit a new record high of more than $100 trillion, around 250% of GDP, up from $75 trillion in 2019. China, Mexico, Brazil, India and Türkiye were the biggest upward contributors, according to the IIF.

As for the developed markets, Japan, the US, France and the UK posted the sharpest increases over the quarter, it said.

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