POLITICS

Isolated Kim Jong Un takes big gamble leaving home for summit with Trump

Published

4 years ago

October 27, 2020

Spare a moment, as you anticipate one of the most unusual summits in modern history, to consider North Korea’s leader as he leaves the all-encompassing bubble of his locked-down stronghold of Pyongyang and steps off a jet onto Singapore soil for his planned sit-down with President Donald Trump on Tuesday.

There’s just no recent precedent for the gamble Kim Jong Un is taking.

As far as we know, his despot father only traveled out of the country by train, and rarely at that, because of fears of assassination. Kim, up until his recent high-profile summit with South Korea’s president on the southern side of their shared border, has usually hunkered down behind his vast propaganda and security services, or made short trips to autocrat-friendly China.

While Singapore has authoritarian leanings, it is still a thriving bastion of capitalism and wealth, and Kim will be performing his high-stakes diplomatic tight-rope walk in front of 3,000 international journalists, including a huge contingent from the ultra-aggressive South Korean press — sometimes referred to by Pyongyang as “reptile media” — two of whom were arrested by Singapore police investigating a report of trespassing at the residence of the North Korean ambassador.

While he famously attended school in Switzerland, traveling this far as supreme leader is an entirely different matter for someone used to being the most revered, most protected, most deferred to human in his country of 25 million. Kim is, essentially, upsetting two decades of carefully choreographed North Korean statecraft and stepping into the unknown.

There’s wild speculation about how Kim will perform on the world stage: Will he bring, for instance, his armored limousine and his dozen well-armed, well-muscled bodyguards to march alongside his rolling fortress in a half-sprint? But amid the curiosity is an even more fundamental question: Why is he taking this risk at all?
North Korea’s neighbors may have conflicting goals for Kim-Trump summit

Here’s a look:
THE LOGISTICS

First the nuts and bolts: How do you protect what many North Koreans consider their single most precious resource, the third member of the Kim family to rule and a direct descendant of North Korea’s worshipped founder Kim Il Sung?

Hundreds of North Korean security experts have no doubt been up nights wondering how to safeguard Kim Jong Un since Trump shocked the world by accepting the North’s invitation to meet.

Kim is expected to arrive Sunday in Singapore, possibly on his official plane, which is called “Chammae-1” and named after the goshawk, North Korea’s national bird. South Korean media reported that a Chinese plane went to Pyongyang on Sunday and then to Beijing before heading to Singapore, but a later report said Kim’s private plane was on its way to Singapore.

It’s not clear if he had shipped over the massive bulletproof and fireproof limousine that became a social media sensation when Kim was shown being driven across the border between the Koreas during his first summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, in April, with a dozen staunch bodyguards encircling the auto.
Trump casts North Korea summit as ‘one-time shot’ for Kim Jong Un

Singapore’s The Straits Times reported earlier this month that the Singapore government declared that four black BMW sedans with armored bodies that can withstand gunshots, explosives and grenades were exempt from certain traffic rules through June 30. The newspaper said the vehicles weren’t from a local authorized dealer, which suggests the cars were brought in specifically for the summit and may be used by Kim.

Kim’s bodyguards will certainly travel with him, providing trusted protection to back up local Singapore security that will control the perimeter and crowds, said Choi Kang, vice president of Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

One benefit of Singapore from the North Korean point of view is that there will probably not be any anti-North Korea protests during Kim’s stay. “Singapore is like a police state. How can such rallies take place there? Anyone involved in rallies would be arrested,” Choi said.

South Korea media outlets are reporting that Kim will likely stay at the St. Regis Singapore hotel, where his close aide has been based as he leads a North Korean advance team arranging security and logistics details. South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo reported that Singapore recommended the St. Regis, which hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping during his 2015 summit with Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, because it can be easily secured.
WHY BOTHER?

The short answer might be that, despite his safety worries, Kim could end up getting much more out of this summit than he will have to give up.

The standard thinking goes that he needs quick help to stabilize and then rebuild an economy that has suffered amid a decades-long pursuit of nuclear bombs, and that the North Koreans see a unique chance to win concessions, legitimacy and protection from a meeting with a highly unconventional U.S. president who’s willing to consider options past American leaders would not.

Kim also gets an “obvious and immediate win” by simply meeting with Trump, writes Joseph Yun, who was the top U.S. diplomat on North Korea until March.

It’s “a sign of recognition that the North Koreans have sought for decades. In my meetings with North Korea’s foreign ministry, its officials have repeatedly emphasized that only a leader-to-leader dialogue could break the nuclear impasse. At the root of this desire lies their central concern: regime survival,” he wrote.

The summit has been portrayed as a “get to know you” meeting.

“That’s a perfect deal for North Korea. They pocket all of it and lose essentially nothing,” said Christopher Hill, President George W. Bush’s lead nuclear negotiator with the North. “The North Koreans have already gotten what they need out of this. Their only issue is how much they have to give up. From what I can tell from (Trump’s recent comments at the White House), they’re not going to be asked to do much.”

Kim may also be seeing the gamble in a light never considered by his autocratic father and grandfather because of “his determination to modernize North Korea,” according to Ryan Haas, an Asia expert at the John L. Thornton China Center.

“Kim confronts rising expectations from within at the same time that he contends with ever-tightening sanctions from abroad,” Haas wrote. “So, according to this logic, in order to satisfy internal expectations, he will need to reduce external pressure, and this dynamic could push Kim down the path of denuclearization.”

Haas offers a useful warning, though, as people around the world settle in to watch the show in Singapore: “Virtually no North Korea analyst inside or outside of the U.S. government” expects Kim to actually give up his nukes.

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POLITICS

Erdogan election defeat would be ‘revenge’ – Syrian Kurds

Published

2 years ago

May 23, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

The YPG claims the Turkish president failing to win another term would be payback for Ankara’s counter-terrorism operations in Syria

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s defeat in this month’s presidential election would serve as “revenge” for Türkiye’s military operations in Syria, a top official of the People’s Defense Units (YPG) has said.

Salih Muslim, one of the leaders of the YPG — a Syrian militant group affiliated with the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and designated by Ankara as a terrorist organization — said in an interview with Medya Haber Kurdish TV channel that his organization has grown frustrated with Türkiye’s counterterrorism operations ongoing in the northern part of Syria since 2016, Daily Sabah reported.

“Now, we have an opportunity in our hands,” Muslim said, stressing that the YPG is eager to see Erdogan unseated. “It’s the first time we have such a thing happening in elections.” He added that “If we can win at the ballot box, we will take all the revenge from [the defeat of] one person.”

Muslim’s statement comes as several members of the YPG and the PKK have openly expressed support for Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, as the two head into a runoff election on May 28. In the previous round, held on May 14, both candidates failed to secure an outright majority with Erdogan gaining just over 49.4% of the vote while Kilicdaroglu received 44.96%.

Kilicdaroglu has vowed to mend Ankara’s relations with NATO and revive Türkiye’s EU membership talks, which have been effectively stalled since 2016. He has also accused Russia of spreading “conspiracies” and “deep fakes” apparently referring to footage circulating online purportedly linking him to the PKK, and told Moscow to get its “hands off the Turkish state.” Russia has rejected the accusations.

Somalis cheer on Türkiye’s Erdogan to win re-election

Erdogan has repeatedly accused his rival of “colluding with terrorists” and threatening to undo Türkiye’s achievements in its war on terror. He has also blasted Kilicdaroglu for trying to “detach” the country from Russia.

Türkiye has been waging low-intensity warfare against Kurdish militias along its Syrian and Iraqi borders for four decades, in a back-and-forth campaign that has claimed the lives of over 40,000 people.

The PKK and its affiliates have been waging an insurgency since 1984 demanding political and cultural autonomy with the final goal of establishing an independent Kurdish State, laying claim to territories in southeast Türkiye and northern parts of Iraq and Syria.

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POLITICS

Chinese special envoy meets with Zelensky

Published

2 years ago

May 19, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

Li Hui visited Kiev to share Beijing’s views on a political settlement to the Ukraine crisis

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has met with China’s newly appointed special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, who traveled to Kiev to convey Beijing’s views on a diplomatic resolution to Ukraine’s conflict with Russia.

According to a statement published on Thursday by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Li held talks with Zelensky as well as the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, Andrey Yermak, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, and representatives from several other ministries.

Beijing said both sides had agreed that the recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Zelensky had outlined the direction for future relations between their two nations, which it stated should be built on mutual respect and sincerity.

During his trip, Li reiterated that Beijing is willing to serve as a peace broker to help reach a political resolution to the conflict with Russia, based on the principles outlined in a 12-point roadmap published by China in late February.

“There is no panacea in resolving the crisis. All parties need to start from themselves, accumulate mutual trust, and create conditions for ending the war and engaging in peace talks,” Li said, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement.

The special envoy’s two-day trip to Ukraine is the first leg of a wider European tour, during which he is expected to visit Poland, France, Germany, and Russia. Beijing has explained that the trip aims to promote communication toward “a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”

Hungary backs Chinese plan for Ukraine

China’s peace efforts have been welcomed by Russia as well as some European nations such as Hungary, and have been praised for acknowledging the national interests of both parties.

The roadmap, however, has been criticized by some in the West. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg claimed that China lacked “credibility” as it has refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted that “the only thing that can be called a peace plan is Zelensky’s proposal.”

The Ukrainian president has demanded that Russia must withdraw from territories that Kiev claims as its own, as well as pay war reparations and face an international tribunal. The Kremlin has dismissed the initiative, claiming it does not take into consideration “the realities on the ground,” including the new status of four former Ukrainian regions as part of Russia.

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Pakistan’s top court orders release of former PM Imran Khan

Published

2 years ago

May 12, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered the release of former prime minister Imran Khan, whose arrest earlier this week triggered deadly protests across the country, Geo TV news channel has reported.

The court considered an appeal by Khan’s legal team on Thursday, ruling that the arrest of the opposition figure was illegal, according to the broadcaster.

The leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was detained on an order from the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on Tuesday as soon as he arrived at a lower court in connection with a graft case against him. He has been held at a police compound in the capital, Islamabad, since then.

Khan’s spokesperson told Al Jazeera that the 70-year-old was apprehended in court before he could even appear before the judges, which was “in violation of all laws.” The PTI party claimed that it was not an arrest, but “an abduction,” and called on its supporters to take the streets.

Pakistan deploys army after Imran Khan’s arrest

Pakistan has been gripped by violent protests for the last three days, with demonstrators clashing with security forces and setting government buildings on fire in major cities across the country. The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has deployed the military in an attempt to curb the unrest.

Some 2,500 of Khan’s supporters, including some top figures in his party, have been arrested so far. Local media have reported at least 11 protesters killed and hundreds of police officers wounded.

Numerous criminal cases have been launched against Khan since his removal from office after a no-confidence vote in April 2022. The PTI leader, who remains highly popular in the country, denies all accusations against him.

The politician claimed a year ago that he had been deposed as a result of a US-led “international conspiracy” and accused his opponents of receiving money from foreign forces.

Khan has been making active attempts to return to power since then, staging massive rallies across the country. The former premier survived an assassination attempt last November, escaping with a non-life-threatening leg wound after several bullets were fired at him.

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