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7 cryptocurrencies to watch in 2018 if you’re on the hunt for the next bitcoin

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A massive bubble? A passing fad? A scam?

Whatever the cynics out there want to call bitcoin, its BTCUSD, -5.70%   insane rally continues to befuddle the haters and enrich the crypto faithful.

Fear of missing out can have a powerful — and dangerous — influence on financial decisions. It’s playing out in a big way right now as many of those who’ve missed out on the digital currency craze kick themselves and frantically search for the next bitcoin — or something even better.

But does that even exist and is it worth the risk to invest?

While he’s still extremely bullish on what lies ahead for bitcoin, George Tung, co-founder of Cryptos R Us and a veteran of investing in cryptocurrencies, says there’s still plenty of upside opportunity in lesser-known coins.

“Will we see another coin with a market cap exceeding bitcoin?” he said. “Yes, I believe that is definitely possible within the next three to five years.”

Related: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency on Twitter: The most important people to follow

Hitesh Malviya, the crypto consultant behind ItsBlockchain.com, says that bitcoin is obviously the place to be during bullish explosions like the one we’re seeing right now, but, in the long run, the big gains in cryptos lie elsewhere.

“The alts industry is new and it will take at least a few years to become mainstream,” he said, adding “we can see 10x gains — like bitcoin this year, in many alt-coins.”

Related: Crypto chatter on Reddit is up 930% this year. So… is THIS the top?

But with more than 1,300 alt-coins — basically any digital currency that isn’t bitcoin — to choose from, it’s no easy task uncovering potential winners. Tung uses a four-part screener to determine which alt-coins may be worth a flyer.

1. Study the team behind it. “Where do they come from? Have they been involved with other cryptos before? Are they backed by anyone, and what kind of experience do they bring? The alt-coins that have done the best and have the highest market caps have the most proven teams.”

2. Take a look at the why. “How useful is this? Are they trying to solve a problem that doesn’t need solving? Some alt-coins coming out are simply ridiculous.”

3. Determine where they are in the process. “I look at the road map of the alt-coin and see how far along are they. Do they have a test-net or a beta? Are there new features being released? Are there soft or hard forks coming up?”

4. Assess the valuation. “Since alt-coins get pumped and dumped a lot, I look at the current market evaluation and see if they are priced right. A lot of alt-coins are priced way too high and I tend to stay away from them.”

With that in mind, here’s an overview of seven cryptocurrencies that analysts have said may be worth watching in 2018. Like bitcoin, all cryptocurrencies are subject to extreme volatility and risk — so if you intend to invest, it’s well worth doing your due diligence and reading up more on each one.

Litecoin (LTC)

Market cap, as of Dec. 25: $15.11 billion

Performance in 2017, as of Dec. 25: +7,004%

Who created it? Former Google GOOGL, -0.24% employee (and now notable star in the crypto universe) Charlie Lee

The skinny: Litecoin has been described as the silver to bitcoin’s gold.

Created by Lee back in 2011, it’s billed as an alternative to bitcoin. Without getting too wonky, Lee essentially aimed to cut the amount of time required to confirm new transactions and tweak the way bitcoin was being mined to ensure anybody could participate. “My vision is people would use Litecoin every day to buy things. It would just be the payment method of choice,” Lee once said.

Litecoin is also designed to produce more coins — it has an 84 million coin limit, versus bitcoin’s 21 million. About 54 million coins are currently in circulation, versus bitcoin’s current 16.7 million circulating supply.

Monero (XMR)

Market cap: $5.3 billion

Performance in 2017: +2,697%

Who created it? Much like bitcoin, Monero’s creator is anonymous.

The skinny: The appeal of Monero? Anonymity. With Monero, the details of every transaction, including sender, receiver and size, are recorded on a public ledger, but are obfuscated to reportedly make them untraceable. Use Monero, and, in theory, there’s no way for anyone else to connect the dots between the sender, receiver or size of the transaction.

Sound like an appealing coin to cybercriminals? It is. The hackers behind the global ransomware incident WannaCry, which infected 230,000 computers running Microsoft Windows, demanded payments in Monero.

That said, there are many more cases recorded of hackers demanding bitcoin, and Monero’s backers say the coin’s biggest use cases aren’t illicit. It would appeal, they say, to corporations who want to move money around without competitors knowing, or to anyone who simply doesn’t want their balance and transactions made public, such as someone doing business in a foreign country who doesn’t want to become a target.

Monero recently said 45 musicians, including Lana Del Ray, Sia and Dolly Parton, will be accepting Monero. Many will even offer discounts to those who pay with it.

There are about 15.5 million XMR in circulation, and, unlike bitcoin and Litecoin, Monero doesn’t have a fixed coin supply.

Neo

Market cap: $3.92 billion

Performance in 2017: +54,021%

Who created it? Da Hongfei , CEO of Onchain and blockchain evangelist in China, along with co-founder Erik Zhang

The skinny: Tung predicts Neo, dubbed the “Ethereum of China,” will explode if China eases its stance on ICOs and bitcoin. Ethereum is the clear No. 2 behind bitcoin in terms of market cap at $61 billion. So Neo obviously has a long way to go.

Founder Da Hongfei recently went on CNBC to soothe fears about cryptos getting overheated. “I would say that there is a bubble in this industry, but would say it’s OK,” he said. “Every technology that is so disruptive — there’ll definitely be bubbles, like the train or the automobile.” Neo has been around since 2014, when it was called “Antshares.” Yes, it’s been changed to reference the Matrix.

NEO’s circulating supply is currently at 65 million, out of a total of 100 million coins.

Cardano (Ada)

Market cap: $10.17 billion

Performance in 2017 (since start of trading in October): +1,528%

Who created it? Blockchain developer Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK)

The skinny: Tung believes that “this next-gen platform has the right team, dedication and money to create a real contender to Ethereum.”

The Cardano blockchain just launched a few months ago and exploded on the scene with massive gains in its coin, called Ada, in November to break into the top 10 cryptos in terms of market cap. At latest check it had slipped down to No. 13.

The project began in 2015 and billed itself as the first blockchain network backed by a “scientific philosophy” and built by leading academics and engineers through peer-reviewed research.

Cardano, while still a relative unknown, is apparently big on private transactions as well as responding to the needs of regulators, making it primed for mass adoption. Its CEO, Charles Hoskinson, says that Cardano tackles issues of “sustainability, interoperability and scalability” so that cryptocurrency can go from a “fun novelty” to something that could be used by billions of people and interface with legacy financial systems. Cardano’s framework is still in its very early stages (what the team refers to as its “bootstrap era”), and the next phase in its road map is set to launch sometime in the second quarter of 2018. That means its framework is still being developed, and it may take time for it to reach the full-fledged smart contract platform its leaders envision.

About 26 billion out of a maximum 45 billion coins are currently in circulation.

Ripple (XRP)

Market cap: $40.5 billion

Performance in 2017: +16,988%

Who created it? Web developer Ryan Fugger, businessman Chris Larsen and programmer Jed McCaleb

The skinny: Former bitcoin developers launched software company Ripple in 2012 and its digital currency, XRP, is seen by some industry types as bitcoin’s logical successor.

The New York Times once described Ripple as “a cross between Western Union and a currency exchange, without the hefty fees” because it’s not only a currency, but also a system on which any currency, including bitcoin, can be traded. “Ripple connects banks, payment providers, digital asset exchanges and corporates via RippleNet to provide one frictionless experience to send money globally,” its creators explained.

Ripple has licensed its blockchain technology to over 100 banks. And a new hedge fund recently announced it would be denominated in XRP. Its CEO recently told Fortune: “We’re not anti-bank, we’re not antigovernment, we’re not anti-fiat currency. For a while that took conviction to stay the course in the face of the more libertarian elements of crypto.”

The XRP circulating supply is currently about 38.7 billion out of a maximum supply of 100 billion… which is A LOT more than the rest of the cryptos on this list.

Iota (MIOTA)

Market cap: $9.7 billion

Performance in 2017 (since start of trading in June): +446%

Who created it? David Sønstebø, Sergey Ivancheglo, Dominik Schiener, and Dr. Serguei Popov, a team of entrepreneurs, mathematicians and developers

The skinny: lota’s big draw is that it doesn’t have any trading fees, miners or blocks. For every transaction you make, your processing power is used to validate two other transactions, making every Iota owner also an Iota “miner.”

Essentially, Iota focuses on becoming the backbone for secure machine-to-machine payments in the Internet of Things economy and is unique in that it is hailed as the first crypto created without the use of a blockchain. Instead, it is based on a distributed ledger architecture called “The Tangle,” an innovation that is credited for allowing Iota to achieve three major crypto milestones: zero-cost transactions, offline transactions, and infinite scalability.

Word of its latest partnership with Microsoft just gave it a big boost and propelled it into the top tier of the most valuable cryptos.

The maximum supply of MIOTA is just under 2.8 billion, and the entire maximum supply is currently in circulation.

Bitcoin Cash

Market cap: $49.4 billion

Performance in 2017 (since start of trading in July): +684%

Who created it? Bitcoin Cash was created by a team of people who forked the bitcoin blockchain ledger. It is now controlled by multiple independent teams of developers.

The skinny: Bitcoin Cash is among the newest of the cryptocurrencies, developed in August of 2017 as a hard fork of bitcoin. What’s that? Essentially a new version of bitcoin that’s incompatible with bitcoin.

Bitcoin Cash was created as some users were frustrated by high fees and slow processing times. Because Bitcoin Cash has a greater block size limit, its creators say the cryptocurrency has more capacity to handle transactions with lower fees and faster confirmations. On the other side of that reasoning, though, are the bitcoin loyalists who believe that increasing block sizes endangers the cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature. The philosophical divide between bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash was aptly described by Forbes as “Cypherpunk Vs. Silicon Valley.”

The biggest challenge facing Bitcoin Cash right now is adoption: For it to be valuable, it needs to convince businesses to accept both bitcoin AND the rival payment network. It also needs to convince miners to participate in the transaction-clearing process.

In mid-November, Bitcoin Cash briefly topped Ethereum’s market cap to become the second-most valuable crypto. Since then it’s fallen back into third place. Its circulating supply is currently at 16.8 million, out of a maximum supply of 21 million.

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China is raising its retirement age, now among the youngest in the world’s major economies

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Starting next year, China will raise its retirement age for workers, which is now among the youngest in the world’s major economies, in an effort to address its shrinking population and aging work force.

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the country’s legislature, passed the new policy Friday after a sudden announcement earlier in the week that it was reviewing the measure, state broadcaster CCTV announced.

The policy change will be carried out over 15 years, with the retirement age for men raised to 63 years, and for women to 55 or 58 years depending on their jobs. The current retirement age is 60 for men and 50 for women in blue-collar jobs and 55 for women doing white-collar work.

“We have more people coming into the retirement age, and so the pension fund is (facing) high pressure. That’s why I think it’s now time to act seriously,” said Xiujian Peng, a senior research fellow at Victoria University in Australia who studies China’s population and its ties to the economy.

The previous retirement ages were set in the 1950’s, when life expectancy was only around 40 years, Peng said.

The policy will be implemented starting in January, according to the announcement from China’s legislature. The change will take effect progressively based on people’s birthdates.

For example, a man born in January 1971 could retire at the age of 61 years and 7 months in August 2032, according to a chart released along with the policy. A man born in May 1971 could retire at the age of 61 years and 8 months in January 2033.

Demographic pressures made the move long overdue, experts say. By the end of 2023, China counted nearly 300 million people over the age of 60. By 2035, that figure is projected to be 400 million, larger than the population of the U.S. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had previously projected that the public pension fund will run out of money by that year.

Pressure on social benefits such as pensions and social security is hardly a China-specific problem. The U.S. also faces the issue as analysis shows that currently, the Social Security fund won’t be able to pay out full benefits to people by 2033.

“This is happening everywhere,” said Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. “But in China with its large elderly population, the challenge is much larger.”

That is on top of fewer births, as younger people opt out of having children, citing high costs. In 2022, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that for the first time the country had 850,000 fewer people at the end of the year than the previous year , a turning point from population growth to decline. In 2023, the population shrank further, by 2 million people.

What that means is that the burden of funding elderly people’s pensions will be divided among a smaller group of younger workers, as pension payments are largely funded by deductions from people who are currently working.

Researchers measure that pressure by looking at a number called the dependency ratio, which counts the number of people over the age of 65 compared to the number of workers under 65. That number was 21.8% in 2022, according to government statistics, meaning that roughly five workers would support one retiree. The percentage is expected to rise, meaning fewer workers will be shouldering the burden of one retiree.

The necessary course correction will cause short-term pain, experts say, coming at a time of already high youth unemployment and a soft economy.

A 52-year-old Beijing resident, who gave his family name as Lu and will now retire at age 61 instead of 60, was positive about the change. “I view this as a good thing, because our society’s getting older, and in developed countries, the retirement age is higher,” he said.

Li Bin, 35, who works in the event planning industry, said she was a bit sad.

“It’s three years less of play time. I had originally planned to travel around after retirement,” she said. But she said it was better than expected because the retirement age was only raised three years for women in white-collar jobs.

Some of the comments on social media when the policy review was announced earlier in the week reflected anxiety.

But of the 13,000 comments on the Xinhua news post announcing the news, only a few dozen were visible, suggesting that many others had been censored.

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Russia warns NATO of ‘direct war’ over Ukraine

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Moscow’s envoy to the UN has reiterated where the Kremlin’s red line is

Granting Kiev permission to use Western-supplied long-range weapons would constitute direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict by NATO, Russia’s envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, has said.

Moscow will treat any such attack as coming from the US and its allies directly, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday, explaining that long-range weapons rely on Western intelligence and targeting solutions, neither of which Ukraine is capable of.

NATO countries would “start an open war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons, Nebenzia told the UN Security Council on Friday.

“If such a decision is made, that means NATO countries are starting an open war against Russia,” Moscow’s envoy said. “In that case, we will obviously be forced to make certain decisions, with all the attendant consequences for Western aggressors.”

Putin issues new warning to NATO

“Our Western colleagues will not be able to dodge responsibility and blame Kiev for everything,” Nebenzia added. “Only NATO troops can program the flight solutions for those missile systems. Ukraine doesn’t have that capability. This is not about allowing Kiev to strike Russia with long-range weapons, but about the West making the targeting decisions.”

Russia considers it irrelevant that Ukrainian nationalists would technically be the ones pulling the trigger, Nebenzia explained. “NATO would become directly involved in military action against a nuclear power. I don’t think I have to explain what consequences that would have,” he said.

The US and its allies placed some restrictions on the use of their weapons, so they could claim not to be directly involved in the conflict with Russia, while arming Ukraine to the tune of $200 billion.

Multiple Western outlets have reported that the limitations might be lifted this week, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Kiev. Russia has repeatedly warned the West against such a course of action.

 

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China makes its move in Africa. Should the West be worried?

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Beijing maintains a conservative economic agenda in its relations with the continent, while finding it increasingly difficult to avoid a political confrontation with the West

The ninth forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the FOCAC summit held in Beijing on September 4-6 marked a significant phase in Africa’s relations with its global partners in the post-Covid era. China is the last major partner to hold a summit with African nations following the end of the pandemic; Africa summits were held by the EU and the US in 2022, and by Russia in 2023. The pandemic, coupled with rising global tensions, macroeconomic shifts, and a series of crises, underlined Africa’s growing role in the global economy and politics – something that China, which has undergone major changes (both internal and external) as a result of the pandemic, is well aware of.

It is clear that the relationship between China and Africa is entering a new phase. China is no longer just a preferential economic partner for Africa, as it had been in the first two decades of the 21st century. It has become a key political and military ally for many African countries. This is evident from China’s increasing role in training African civil servants and sharing expertise with them, as well as from several initiatives announced at the summit, including military-technical cooperation: officer training programs, mine clearing efforts, and over $100 million which China will provide to support the armed forces of African nations.

In the political arena, however, Beijing is proceeding very cautiously and the above-mentioned initiatives should be seen as the first tentative attempts rather than a systematic strategy.

While China strives to avoid political confrontation with the West in Africa and even closely cooperates with it on certain issues, it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so. Washington is determined to pursue a policy of confrontation with Beijing in Africa – this is evident both from US rhetoric and its strategic documents.

Dirty tactics: How the US tries to break China’s soft power in Africa

A “divorce” between China and the West is almost inevitable. This means that Chinese companies may lose contracts with Western corporations and won’t have access to transportation and logistics infrastructure. Consequently, China will need to develop its own comprehensive approach to Africa, either independently or in collaboration with other global power centers.

An important sign of the growing confrontation between the US and China in Africa was the signing of a trilateral memorandum of understanding between China, Tanzania, and Zambia regarding the reconstruction of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA), which was originally built by China in the 1970s. If it is expanded, electrified, and modernized, TAZARA has the potential to become a viable alternative to one of the key US investment projects in the region: the Lobito Corridor, which aims to enhance logistics infrastructure for exporting minerals (copper and cobalt) from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia by modernizing the railway from the DR Congo to the Angolan port of Lobito.

In inland regions such as Eastern Congo, transportation infrastructure plays a crucial role in the process of mineral extraction. Considering the region’s shortage of rail and road networks, even a single non-electrified railway line leading to a port in the Atlantic or Indian Ocean can significantly boost the operation of the mining sector and permanently tie the extraction and processing regions to specific markets.

It appears that China’s initiative holds greater promise compared to the US one, particularly because Chinese companies control major mines both in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia. This gives them a clear advantage in working with Chinese operators and equipment, facilitating the export of minerals through East African ports. Overall, this indicates that East Africa will maintain its role as the economic leader on the continent and one of the most integrated and rapidly developing regions for imports.

A former colonial European power returns to Africa. What is it after now?

The highlight of the summit was China’s pledge to provide $50 billion to African countries over the next three years (by 2027). This figure echoes the $55 billion commitment to China made by the US (for 3 years) at the 2022 US-Africa Summit and the $170 billion that the EU promised to provide over seven years back in 2021. Consequently, leading global players allocate approximately $15-20 billion annually to Africa.

In recent years, there has been noticeable growth in such promises. Nearly every nation is eager to promise Africa something – for example, Italy has pledged $1 billion annually. However, these large packages of so-called “financial aid” often have little in common with actual assistance, since they are typically commercial loans or corporate investments. Moreover, a significant portion of these funds is spent in the donor countries (e.g. on the procurement and production of goods), which means that they contribute to the economic growth of African nations in a minimal way.

As for China, it will provide about $11 billion in genuine aid. This is a substantial amount which will be used for developing healthcare and agriculture in Africa. Another $30 billion will come in the form of loans (roughly $10 billion per year) and a further $10 billion as investments.

The overall financial framework allows us to make certain conclusions, though it’s important to note that the methodology for calculating these figures is unclear, and the line between loans, humanitarian aid, and investments remains blurred. In terms of investments (averaging around $3 billion per year), Beijing plans to maintain its previous levels of activity – in recent years, China’s foreign direct investments (FDI) have ranged from $2 billion to $5 billion annually. Financial and humanitarian aid could nearly double (from the current $1.5 billion-$2 billion per year) while lending is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels (which would still be below the peak years of 2012-2018).

Can Africa seize control of its own energy?

China’s economic plan for Africa seems to be quite conservative. It’s no surprise that debt issues took center stage during the summit. During the Covid-19 pandemic, macroeconomic stability in African countries deteriorated, which led to challenges in debt repayments and forced Africa to initiate debt restructuring processes assisted by the IMF and the G20. Starting in 2020, a combination of internal and external factors led China to significantly cut its lending to African countries – from about $10-15 billion down to $2-3 billion. This reduction in funding has triggered economic reforms in several African countries (e.g. Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria), which have shifted toward stricter tax and monetary policies. While promises to increase lending may seem like good news for African nations, it’s likely that much of this funding will go toward interest payments on existing obligations and debt restructuring, since China wants to ensure that its loans are repaid.

Despite China’s cautious approach to Africa, its interaction with the continent will develop as a result of external and internal changes affecting both Africa and China. Africa will gradually become more industrialized and will reduce imports while the demand for investments and local production will increase. China will face demographic challenges, and its workforce will decrease. This may encourage bilateral cooperation as some production facilities may move from China to Africa. This will most likely concern East African countries such as Ethiopia and Tanzania, considering China’s current investments in their energy and transportation infrastructure. Additionally, with Africa’s population on the rise and China’s population declining, Beijing is expected to attract more African migrant workers to help address labor shortages.

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